tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-94532412024-03-21T10:04:46.409-07:00Phase PortraitPersonal weblog of Ted Pavlic. Includes lots of MATLAB and LaTeX (computer typesetting) tips along with commentary on all things engineering and some things not. An endless effort to keep it on the simplex.Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.comBlogger1180125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-7442981886738244012021-03-11T09:56:00.003-07:002021-03-11T09:57:10.295-07:00Who should write you a letter of recommendation?<p><i>[this was originally posted as a <a href="https://tedpavlic.medium.com/who-should-write-you-a-letter-of-recommendation-70ebea158a1d" target="_blank">Medium article</a>]</i></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="18a5">There are a few times every year when faculty members are bombarded with requests to write letters of recommendation for students. Sadly, we do not do a good job telling undergraduate students what kinds of relationships they should be building with faculty to ensure that when the time comes (e.g., applying for graduate school or medical school), there will be two or three different faculty who feel comfortable writing a recommendation letter.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8d6a">A good recommendation letter must do much more than just verifying a grade in a class. Students applying for graduate school will be asked to submit verified transcripts, and so the veracity of reported grades will not be in question. Furthermore, if all a letter writer can do is verify a grade in a course, then that actually speaks negatively for the student because it indicates that the student could not find a letter writer who could supply a stronger message. <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">In fact, some of the best letters are from faculty who can address why an admissions committee should overlook a low GPA or a poor grade. The best letters are not about grades, they are about people.</strong></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8734">Students should keep in mind that every person that they ask to write them a letter will be given a form like the one below and an opportunity (which is expected that they will take) to write a 1–2 page free response reflecting on the student and their potential for the program for which they are applying.</p><figure class="graf graf--figure" name="95d9"><a href="https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*OzIv_MBLMk053U09-WQu2Q.png" target="_blank"><img alt="Example questions from an actual recommendation letter form for a graduate school application" class="graf-image" data-height="1219" data-image-id="1*OzIv_MBLMk053U09-WQu2Q.png" data-width="622" height="640" src="https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*OzIv_MBLMk053U09-WQu2Q.png" title="Example questions from an actual recommendation letter form for a graduate school application (click to expand)" width="326" /></a><figcaption class="imageCaption">Example questions from an actual recommendation letter form for a graduate school application (click to expand)</figcaption></figure><p class="graf graf--p" name="58d2">Although the forms for each graduate program have slightly different questions, they all ask questions very similar to the ones above. If a student asks me for a letter, and I have never had an office-hours conversation with the student before (let alone exchanged an e-mail), it would be very difficult for me to attempt an answer to any of those questions above. At a minimum, I need to understand a student’s career goals and motivations for graduate study. It is ideal if I have worked with the student on a project (e.g., undergraduate research), but often just one or two good conversations during office hours is enough for me to attempt answers to the questions above and even write a one-page letter that does much more than just confirm the reported grade for my course.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="0e95">So, choose wisely when picking letter writers. The best letters are going to be very personal and specific to your case and will address any parts of your application that you think might make you look weaker than other candidates (e.g., a low GPA or low grades). How do you make sure you will be able to pick a good letter writer? Start early. If you have time, try to get involved in some projects with faculty so that they have experience working directly with you. But even if you can’t do that, just go to office hours and chat with the faculty member about your career goals. Ask questions about graduate school, and maybe you’ll learn something interesting.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="47c3">If you didn’t know to do this during your undergraduate degree, <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">it’s not too late to <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">schedule a meeting</em> with one of your old professors.</strong> Tell them that you are considering graduate school and wanted to ask a few questions and get their reflections about your chosen career path. <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">Just ten or fifteen minutes in conversation</strong> is enough to turn a recommendation letter into something that looks like it was written by a robot to something that will go a long way to getting you passed the admissions committee.</p>Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0Tempe, AZ, USA33.4255104 -111.94000545.1152765638211548 -147.09625540000002 61.735744236178846 -76.7837554tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-17387692370196401102021-02-20T17:05:00.007-07:002021-02-20T17:24:47.582-07:00Ecovacs Deebot OZMO T8 AIVI and Auto-Empty Station: It's the good kind of suck! <div>I think most anyone who has heard of a robotic vacuum cleaner has heard of the industry leader, <a href="http://irobot.com/" target="_blank">iRobot</a>. However, I've noticed that the offerings from iRobot have stagnated a bit and lag behind innovations at their competitors. One such competitor is <a href="https://www.ecovacs.com/" target="_blank">Ecovacs</a>. During COVID-19, my wife and I decided to add a new puppy (Dexter, cream-colored <a href="https://welovedoodles.com/golden-mountain-doodle-the-ultimate-guide/" target="_blank">Golden Mountain Doodle </a>pictured near the bottom of page) to our home after our old dog (Fritz, black-and-white <a href="https://doggiedesigner.com/cock-a-chon/" target="_blank">Cock-a-chon</a> pictured at very bottom) sadly passed on. Dexter has been wonderful, but his new limber legs and light shedding has meant more fur and leaves (we have a dog door) collecting each day. So we decided to check out the robo-vacuum market. As a control engineering/AI researcher myself, I was impressed to see vSLAM on most robots mid-range and higher, with some of the non-iRobot varieties incorporating other technology that is awesome to see transferred out of the research laboratory. Here, I take a look at the vacuum we ended up getting (after trying the <a href="https://amzn.to/3k6O5Pu" target="_blank">iRobot version</a> and returning it due to incompatibilities between it and our carpet and a lack of state-of-the-art features).<br /><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B086214HTZ?ie=UTF8&psc=1&linkCode=li2&tag=phaseportrait-20&linkId=2e3a2175a9cf817d18d4d0acb6bcc445&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_il" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=B086214HTZ&Format=_SL160_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=US&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=phaseportrait-20&language=en_US" /></a><img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=phaseportrait-20&language=en_US&l=li2&o=1&a=B086214HTZ" style="border: none; margin: 0px;" width="1" /><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08GHV4YFS?ie=UTF8&psc=1&linkCode=li2&tag=phaseportrait-20&linkId=dcb7011ff9b304544b2ae2d316eb7569&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_il" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=B08GHV4YFS&Format=_SL160_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=US&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=phaseportrait-20&language=en_US" /></a><img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=phaseportrait-20&language=en_US&l=li2&o=1&a=B08GHV4YFS" style="border: none; margin: 0px;" width="1" /></div><p>We bit the bullet and got the premium <a href="https://amzn.to/3uf22zE" target="_blank">Ecovacs OZMO T8 AIVI</a> and the <a href="https://amzn.to/3btEBde" target="_blank">corresponding auto-empty station</a> that works with it (and some other models from Ecovacs). Here are links to them:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Ecovacs Ozmo T8 AIVI Vacuum</b>: <a href="https://amzn.to/37Q3EGH">https://amzn.to/37Q3EGH</a></li><li><b>Ecovacs Deebot 2.5L Auto-Empty Station</b>: <a href="https://amzn.to/2OMvcWv">https://amzn.to/2OMvcWv</a></li></ul><p></p><p>As you can see below, after every vacuuming session, I get a report of where the robot has been and what obstacles it has encountered (so I can go and clean them up). In fact, I can even view it moving around on the map in real time while I'm away. Although iRobot models do multi-floor mapping (like this one), you have to wait to interact with the map afterward (and you cannot see exactly where the robot has been and what route it took). The Ecovacs models allow you to pause the robot in the middle of a session and add virtual barriers and no-go zones.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcSmdv_UeUeZbnc-QOLuju_TSgps7YAgK7lRdYYkiswbcCAG2tI80uDbdH8pHxwwyST-_cFUMsDjawkL_d4YLdr5QTorgfftUzLQj18TJgFPlzdqeJrB4AH3OI6AVIi2N11gQP/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1731" data-original-width="1080" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcSmdv_UeUeZbnc-QOLuju_TSgps7YAgK7lRdYYkiswbcCAG2tI80uDbdH8pHxwwyST-_cFUMsDjawkL_d4YLdr5QTorgfftUzLQj18TJgFPlzdqeJrB4AH3OI6AVIi2N11gQP/w400-h640/image.png" width="400" /></a></div>We set our vacuum to run every night downstairs at 2am, and we have a <a href="https://amzn.to/2OYC2IL" target="_blank">Hubitat Elevation Hub</a> that ensures that the lights come on then to aid in the navigation of the robot (and turn off after it is done). So far, this has not caused any problems for us (or the dog) sleeping. When it finishes (1100 sq. ft. in about 65–90 minutes), it returns to the auto-empty station and empties its dust bin automatically. We then get told when to change the <a href="https://amzn.to/3dDzs5j" target="_blank">bag</a> in the station. The <b>nice </b>thing about having to buy the auto-empty station separately is that it means I have a spare charger (that came with the main unit). So I've set that up upstairs. Then, on Saturday mornings, when we take puppy Dexter to training, I place the robot on its spare charger upstairs and let it go. It recognizes that it has been moved to another floor and vacuums according to that map (you can load up to two maps). When we get home, I carry it back downstairs, place it on the auto-empty station, and tell it to empty the dust bin (which would have been done automatically if it had docked in the auto-empty station as it does every night).<p></p><p>The Vacuum also has <b>mopping features built in</b> (if you load it up with water and the mopping pad), and there is an additional extension that you can buy that adds ultra-sonic scrubbing to the mop. I understand the potential downside to that is that it isn't always able to get docked when that attachment is connected. That was OK with us because we really got it to pick up fur, Arizona dust, and leaves brought in by the dog (through his dog door). It works well for that, and it adjusts its thrust depending on the surface it is on (we have carpet and tile) and resistance it feels. So we ended up not buying the extra mopping unit (but might someday try the mopping features of the base unit).</p><p><b>There are some geeky additional non-vacuuming features too.</b> The camera (which faces forward and thus is not useful when the bot is docked) can be viewed from remote, and the bot can be driven around as well. You can even set it into "patrol mode" where it moves around and takes video and stores that video for later viewing. If you manually connect and drive it around, you can actually engage its speaker so you can, for example, talk to your dog while you're away.<br /></p><p>You can cover up the camera (they give you an attachment for that, which is a little clunky) in case you are worried about privacy. Like most of these super-smart vacuums, it capitalizes on access to the camera for navigation ("<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simultaneous_localization_and_mapping" target="_blank">vSLAM</a>"). In other words, despite having <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lidar" target="_blank">LIDAR</a> to find obstacles, it fuses both of them. So covering the camera makes mapping and navigation less efficient. Furthermore, it is best for it to vacuum in at least dim light, which is why I ensure the lights come on while it is vacuuming (as described above).</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBPm0OvROC-aNN6aiglY2R32QDNbeqU2Hi_qzGKYe52KwsPqxMZaLMnMmFk1-U43l7AjhSD4dWqm0FXf69DQmEIC4l8QA52wLib0a2sy61mmYqXOBptEJ4_oM8J9udkl_ane0-/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1621" data-original-width="1621" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBPm0OvROC-aNN6aiglY2R32QDNbeqU2Hi_qzGKYe52KwsPqxMZaLMnMmFk1-U43l7AjhSD4dWqm0FXf69DQmEIC4l8QA52wLib0a2sy61mmYqXOBptEJ4_oM8J9udkl_ane0-/" width="240" /></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBPm0OvROC-aNN6aiglY2R32QDNbeqU2Hi_qzGKYe52KwsPqxMZaLMnMmFk1-U43l7AjhSD4dWqm0FXf69DQmEIC4l8QA52wLib0a2sy61mmYqXOBptEJ4_oM8J9udkl_ane0-/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj26JDNdHmyrh4JLuMQfFNPXe8v917FoN7Vt0HOkp0MNcRWTyEXPzfL1tmAArN1ElbBJMJJtEfI08DUlzj8GZkm0CW4oH8N-Z4riWiM8tyIDU1_wntzJD-6STyDjaC4Wl1NnJ-Y/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1216" data-original-width="1621" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj26JDNdHmyrh4JLuMQfFNPXe8v917FoN7Vt0HOkp0MNcRWTyEXPzfL1tmAArN1ElbBJMJJtEfI08DUlzj8GZkm0CW4oH8N-Z4riWiM8tyIDU1_wntzJD-6STyDjaC4Wl1NnJ-Y/" width="320" /></a></div><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p>Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0Phoenix, AZ, USA33.4483771 -112.07403735.1381432638211564 -147.2302873 61.758610936178847 -76.9177873tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-22588340484579489892021-01-18T20:57:00.003-07:002021-01-18T20:59:58.879-07:00Looking for MediaAmp, Course Links, or Files in Canvas's "Enhanced" Rich Content Editor (RCE)?<p>Recently, my university has changed things so that faculty using Canvas LMS will now encounter the “Enhanced Rich Content Editor (RCE)” by default whenever they edit an assignment, announcement, etc. Strangely, this change was made in the middle of the semester, not giving faculty who were unfamiliar with the "Enhanced" RCE a chance to find everything they frequently used in the classical editor. So here's a list of tips (with screenshots) to help you get used to the new editor.</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>ASU uses MediaAmp to host videos for streaming to students. If you’re looking for MediaAmp (to embed videos) in the new RCE, you have to click on the little “Plug-in” icon (looks like a plug) and possibly search for it under “View All.” <br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr3O6aCuL0LAHDaxhbu688GPyulzOLOYsc_iBgYTXhNud0Qb8Prd3h683qlf7UFEmsIX40C-yt8uh86eJSFBTYNRJ0ZxIJVTB2S-D-9bU43YQgtd6dIixjzDaeS6SkKkw1Ihie/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Plug-in menu showing MediaAmp and View All in Canvas LMS Enhanced RCE" data-original-height="145" data-original-width="338" height="137" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr3O6aCuL0LAHDaxhbu688GPyulzOLOYsc_iBgYTXhNud0Qb8Prd3h683qlf7UFEmsIX40C-yt8uh86eJSFBTYNRJ0ZxIJVTB2S-D-9bU43YQgtd6dIixjzDaeS6SkKkw1Ihie/w320-h137/mediaAMP.png" title="Plug-in menu in Canvas LMS Enhanced RCE" width="320" /></a></div></li><li><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">If you’re looking for course links (Pages, Assignments, etc.), you have to click on the “Link” Icon (looks like chain links) and then select “Course Links."<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy33husp_NbSfN17JZNIccojUnxz76TrxiZiYpFrYps1czB1eUZtZgXrXw7h2riIpn7Fgcd1Avf0Iil94HXDEv8DEk8KfPlROibPIOZQiIamiw1HAdkhVnMKdTjkyHO_JnWDRm/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Link menu showing External and Course Links in Canvas LMS Enhanced RCE" data-original-height="145" data-original-width="306" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy33husp_NbSfN17JZNIccojUnxz76TrxiZiYpFrYps1czB1eUZtZgXrXw7h2riIpn7Fgcd1Avf0Iil94HXDEv8DEk8KfPlROibPIOZQiIamiw1HAdkhVnMKdTjkyHO_JnWDRm/w320-h152/courseLinks.png" title="Link menu in Canvas LMS Enhanced RCE" width="320" /></a><br /></div></div></li><li><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">If you’re looking for your Files, you have to click on the “Link” icon, then select “Course Links”, then in the pop-up “Add” window that comes up on the right, change “Course Links” to “Files."<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM8eWXGpNRDjJuhYX9RUo5Stz0Vl8L-WPsgN5HSULkoOja4cHO5QqhQSDrNHuuWwDwe6RIBk-y9KfVfaCwOtjxFRqao0JaxZj5fFJd25zJzRcidwNtfimgS2eQ2K5bHfMCHnen/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Course Links "Add" menu configured for "Files" in Canvas LMS Enhanced RCE" data-original-height="419" data-original-width="493" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM8eWXGpNRDjJuhYX9RUo5Stz0Vl8L-WPsgN5HSULkoOja4cHO5QqhQSDrNHuuWwDwe6RIBk-y9KfVfaCwOtjxFRqao0JaxZj5fFJd25zJzRcidwNtfimgS2eQ2K5bHfMCHnen/" title="Course Links "Add" menu configured for "Files" in Canvas LMS Enhanced RCE" width="282" /></a></div><br /><br /></div></li><li><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Alternatively, some of you might not see the wisdom of changing editors in the middle of a semester like this one. For those of you, you can go to “Settings” and “Feature Options” and then toggle “RCE Enhancements” OFF to get the old editor back (at least for a little while).<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1XoMLBAYaVc6Q54Gc1no1owoSbNURqED_ONjFKpeizm-lWhfSVAfdeJeE8hcs1xRMNVa3rGj60aUDOkAAWZDE2Nz4UKfLekUsU6kRKLzim_Z6QjKQK9L2oYJmB5IDqF1kt1L9/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Canvas LMS course settings that disable Enhanced RCE" data-original-height="766" data-original-width="868" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1XoMLBAYaVc6Q54Gc1no1owoSbNURqED_ONjFKpeizm-lWhfSVAfdeJeE8hcs1xRMNVa3rGj60aUDOkAAWZDE2Nz4UKfLekUsU6kRKLzim_Z6QjKQK9L2oYJmB5IDqF1kt1L9/w320-h282/enhancedRCE.png" title="Canvas LMS course settings that disable Enhanced RCE" width="320" /></a></div></div></li></ul>I hope that's helpful! I wish I could say that the Enhanced RCE is an improvement, but I think you can see how it adds so many extra steps to find things that used to be up front and ready to use in the old editor. Even though it <i>looks</i> a little nicer, it's a net downgrade from the old editor. And it is still impossible to drag images into the editor to insert them or simply paste them in place. You get no functional benefits out of the editor, and you get a lot of extra drag.<div><br /></div><div>Happy editing, faculty!</div>Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-45472870479728818612020-12-29T15:38:00.004-07:002021-02-26T13:44:25.663-07:00Evolution and Evolutionary Algorithms: Selection, Mutation, and Drift<p style="text-align: center;">A guide to the <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">three </em></strong>pressures that shape innovation in living and non-living systems.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><i>(a version of this article has also been posted to <a href="https://tedpavlic.medium.com/evolution-and-evolutionary-algorithms-selection-mutation-and-drift-8bb22f5faad6" target="_blank">Medium</a>)</i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8Z22BvML_T1V8iBs6sz6txgUPFNlazCk6H11hu87nhDLYf2b6SUhbYNVzEdZq0JcA0GfnYoG0xDtinR01bFEmhPvqPRB5-QXxJyLk878H4zWRVdPnpPM5Ch5j1pOqKZWV_C5Z/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Diagram bringing together genotypic diversity, phenotypic diversity, drift, mutation, and natural selection" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="1440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8Z22BvML_T1V8iBs6sz6txgUPFNlazCk6H11hu87nhDLYf2b6SUhbYNVzEdZq0JcA0GfnYoG0xDtinR01bFEmhPvqPRB5-QXxJyLk878H4zWRVdPnpPM5Ch5j1pOqKZWV_C5Z/w640-h360/Unit01-Conceptual_Model_of_the_GA.png" title="Evolution as Movement in a Drift Field" width="500" /></a></div></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="9d33">I teach a course on <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://asu-iee598-bioinspired.blogspot.com/p/lectures-grouped-by-semester.html" href="https://asu-iee598-bioinspired.blogspot.com/p/lectures-grouped-by-semester.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Bio-Inspired AI and Optimization</a> that is meant to be a graduate-level survey of nature-inspired algorithms that also provides a more serious background in the natural-science (primarily biological) fundamentals underlying the inspiration. The first half of the course covers nature-inspired <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaheuristic" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaheuristic" rel="noopener" target="_blank">optimization metaheuristics</a>, with a heavy focus on <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolutionary_algorithm" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolutionary_algorithm" rel="noopener" target="_blank">evolutionary algorithms</a>. An evolutionary algorithm is a scheme for automating the process of goal-directed discovery to allow computers to find innovative solutions to complex problems. There is a wide range of evolutionary algorithms, but a common feature of each is that the computer generates a population of random candidate solutions, evaluates the performance of each of these candidates, and then uses the best of these candidates as “parents” to guide the generation of new candidates in the next generation.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="fcbf">Most of my students come from computer science or engineering backgrounds and, as such, have very little formal education in biology let alone something as specific as <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_genetics" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_genetics" rel="noopener" target="_blank">population genetics</a> (“popgen”). However, to really understand the complex process of evolutionary innovation inherent to evolutionary algorithms (and evolutionary computing in general), it requires at least some fundamental background in popgen. I think when most people reflect back on their high-school biology courses, they might remember something about <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_selection" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_selection" rel="noopener" target="_blank">natural selection</a> and <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation" rel="noopener" target="_blank">mutation</a> being important in thinking about the evolution of adaptations in natural populations. However, <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">there is a third evolutionary force that is extremely important </strong>— especially when considering small populations, like the ones that are artificially generated in an evolutionary algorithm. That force is <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_drift" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_drift" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">(genetic) drift</strong></a>. So let’s review all three:</p><ul class="postList"><li class="graf graf--li" name="0d1c"><strong class="markup--strong markup--li-strong"><em class="markup--em markup--li-em">Natural selection</em></strong> reflects that some individuals in a population will be at a fundamental disadvantage with respect to other individuals. Those individuals (who are, in the computational creativity context, are relatively poor solutions to a problem) will be very likely to be “selected out” in large populations because there will be so many other individuals who are relatively “fitter.” “<strong class="markup--strong markup--li-strong"><em class="markup--em markup--li-em">Fitness</em></strong>” is a measure of how many offspring an individual can put into the next generation given the current context. If some individuals can put more individuals into the next generation than others, they are “more fit.” If all individuals have the same fitness, then every parent has the same chance of getting her offspring into the next generation. If some individuals have less fitness than others, then they have less chance of getting their offspring into the next generation.<br /> <br />Some people are taught that natural selection only matters when resources are scarce and thus population sizes are limited (thus making individuals compete for opportunities). This is not the whole story and is why we must discuss <em class="markup--em markup--li-em">(genetic) drift</em> below. Before getting into that, note that even in populations that are not limited, differences in the <em class="markup--em markup--li-em">rates</em> of growth of different strategies will gradually change the relative share a strategy has of a population. So even without resource limitation, differences in “relative fitness” will naturally select for the most fit individuals to have the strongest share of the population.<br /> <br />By itself, selection can only tune the relative proportions that different strategies have in a population. However, many evolutionary processes have a way of blending from different parents to create offspring that somehow interpolate from those parents. In biology, we view “sex” as the primary way in which we see “<strong class="markup--strong markup--li-strong"><em class="markup--em markup--li-em">recombination</em></strong>” of strategies. There are sex-like mechanisms in evolutionary algorithms that do the same. So when natural selection is combined with recombination (“sex”), we get optimization combined with a little bit of goal-directed novelty generation. However, recombining strategies across different parents can deleterious because breaking up two functional strategies and putting them together does not guarantee that the result will itself be functional. Those strategies that result that are functional might improve upon both parents, but the novelty may be limited because it simply borrows from strategies of the parents.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="2ae5"><strong class="markup--strong markup--li-strong"><em class="markup--em markup--li-em">Mutation</em></strong> is one way to introduce novelty that can be tuned to be less disruptive as recombination while also producing more novel solutions than recombining solutions from the parent generation. In mutation, random changes in a parent strategy are introduced. In a population of clones of a single strategy, mutation introduces novel variations that generates differences in offspring that hopefully lead to differences in relative fitness. These fitness differences will cause some mutations to grow in representation and others to shrink in representation. So one of the functions of drift is exploration to find new candidate solutions that might be better than anything in the current population. However, another important function of mutation is to balance the stagnating force of <em class="markup--em markup--li-em">genetic drift</em>.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="7c01"><strong class="markup--strong markup--li-strong"><em class="markup--em markup--li-em">(Genetic) Drift</em></strong> is a subtle but extremely important evolutionary pressure that represents what occurs when population sizes eventually meet their limits. As mentioned above, in a world of plentiful resources, natural selection will allow every strategy to survive and produce offspring, but strategies that produce more offspring will grow in their share of the total population. Eventually, if the population is very large and becomes limited in how much it can grow, those strategies that have a lot of representation will have a much higher probability of being represented after the limitation kicks in. <strong class="markup--strong markup--li-strong">In other words, when population sizes are high, resource limitation is a culling effect</strong>—strategies that are more fit tend to be selected to continue and strategies that are less fit are “selected out” and removed. However, this culling effect eventually leads to its own demise as the removal of low-fitness individuals also results in the removal of diversity which is required for natural selection to work. As mentioned above, the action of natural selection only optimizes among the diversity of solutions in the parent generation. If the parent generation has no diversity, then there are no improvements that natural selection can make. When a population finds itself full of identical individuals and thus stuck and unable to generate any new novelty, we refer to that population as being “<em class="markup--em markup--li-em">fixed</em>” or having reached “<em class="markup--em markup--li-em">fixation</em>.” Genetic drift represents this gradual march toward fixation. Natural selection, when combined with population limitation, is always being pulled toward fixation where natural selection will fail to be able to act.<br /> <br />Fortunately, <em class="markup--em markup--li-em">mutation</em> (mentioned above) can rescue us from drift. Mutation introduces new variation in a population, and natural selection can choose strategies out of that new variation. So if we want to combat drift, we can just crank up the mutation rate. The downside of that is that the mutation rate also quickly corrupts well-performing strategies. So populations that have a high mutation rate will tend to have a diverse set of strategies within them and maintain a diverse set of fitnesses. Some individuals will have very high fitness, but they will co-exist with individuals with very low fitness (due to mutation) that are just a side effect of the stabilizing force of mutation. <strong class="markup--strong markup--li-strong">Reducing the mutation rate helps to ensure all solutions have similar fitness, but there is never any way to know if a population of individuals with similar fitness is because their shared strategy is good or they simply reached fixation too soon.</strong><br /> <br />The problem of reaching fixation “too soon” is particularly strong for small population sizes. In a small population size, small differences in fitness may fail to generate sufficient selective pressure to dominate the force of genetic drift. For example, in a population that is limited to a size of 10, an individual with a fitness 1/100 of some other individual may still by “good luck” produce a single offspring in the next generation. That offspring, although 1/100'th as fit of a strategy as some other in the population, nevertheless takes up 10% of the next generation. <strong class="markup--strong markup--li-strong">So for small population sizes, mutation and drift are essentially the only drivers of evolution.</strong></li></ul><p class="graf graf--p" name="71fe">So when building an evolutionary algorithm, it is important to start with a diverse population and then build mutation and selection operations that maintain diversity as long as possible (staving off genetic drift). So long as the population is diverse, natural selection will continue to explore large regions of the strategy space. However, if mutation is too strong, then it will limit exploitation and tuning of strategies because adaptations that make small changes in fitness will quickly be lost to mutation. Consequently, if you have the computational budget, it is best to build very large population sizes with very low mutation rates and choose selection operators that <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">moderate </em>selection pressure — giving low-fitness strategies a chance to stay in the large population pool.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="6bf4">Similarly, when thinking about evolution in natural systems, it is important to remember how large the ancestral populations were. Those that evolved in large-population contexts may tend to show more signs of natural selection (and will likely have evolved mechanisms to reduce the mutation rate). Those that evolved in small-population contexts may tend to have high mutation rates and show diversity patterns more closely related to randomness. This latter case relates to <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutral_theory_of_molecular_evolution" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutral_theory_of_molecular_evolution" rel="noopener" target="_blank">neutral theories of evolution</a>, which are important to consider when trying to understand the source of observed variation in systems we see today.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="517b">This story is summarized in the graphic I’ve prepared above, which shows mutation and natural selection as forces re-shaping populations within a drift field that, in the absence of those forces, will eventually homogenize the population on an arbitrary strategy. </p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8fbf">So how do we come up with interesting new ideas for mutation and selection operators for evolutionary algorithms? We should continue to look at population genetics. In fact, some theories in population genetics (like Sewall Wright’s <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shifting_balance_theory" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shifting_balance_theory" rel="noopener" target="_blank">shifting-balance theory</a>) are much better descriptors of evolutionary algorithm behavior than the more complex evolutionary trajectories of living systems. For example, distributed genetic algorithms, which create islands of evolutionary algorithms that only exchange population members across island boundaries infrequently, tend to out-perform conventional genetic algorithms on the same computational budgets for reasons that make sense in light of population genetics. This is a more advanced topic, and you’re welcome to read/listen more about this in my <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://asu-iee598-bioinspired.blogspot.com/p/lectures-grouped-by-semester.html" href="https://asu-iee598-bioinspired.blogspot.com/p/lectures-grouped-by-semester.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">CSE/IEE 598 lectures</a>. For now, I hope you look at living and non-living populations around you through the lenses of mutation, drift, and natural selection.</p>Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0Tempe, AZ, USA33.4255104 -111.94000545.1152765638211548 -147.09625540000002 61.735744236178846 -76.7837554tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-60682994610622634642020-12-01T17:37:00.003-07:002020-12-01T17:37:47.751-07:00Low-cost, Convenient, Portable Lighting Solution for Video Conferencing<p>There's nothing worse than bad lighting on a video call or while recording a video. Experts will tell you that you should buy a nice ring light, which provides a nice diffuse glow on your face as you record. However, most ring lights are eyesores on a modern desk and are generally pretty inconvenient, especially if you regularly use a laptop as your recording rig. For example, a good quality ring lamp might require clamping onto the edge of a desk, which might not be ideal for your desk setup. Fortunately, <b>I've found a cheap solution (far cheaper than most ring lights) that does a great job, is super portable, and looks great on a desk.</b></p><p>This <a href="https://amzn.to/37l3qGk" target="_blank"><b>Sailstar Rechargable Reading Lamp</b></a> is great. </p>
<div align="center"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08B4MVF8T/ref=as_li_ss_il?ie=UTF8&psc=1&linkCode=li3&tag=phaseportrait-20&linkId=c056c2229903dc706de13099ed1ec2fb&language=en_US" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=B08B4MVF8T&Format=_SL250_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=US&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=phaseportrait-20&language=en_US" /></a><img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=phaseportrait-20&language=en_US&l=li3&o=1&a=B08B4MVF8T" style="border: none; margin: 0px;" width="1" /></div><div align="center"><br /></div>
<p>It is cheap (at the time of this post, it is <a href="https://amzn.to/37l3qGk" target="_blank">$16.99 on Amazon</a> and has an additional 10% coupon that can be applied), and it has an array of features that are great for any Zoom call or camera session in general. For example:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>3 Lighting Modes</b><br />(5000K, 4000K, and 3500K – pick your color temperatures for your complexion and camera)</li><li><b>Continuously dimmable</b> (800 lumens max)<br /></li><li><b>Diffuse disc of LED light</b> (not a point source)</li><li><b>Flexible gooseneck</b> and weighted base allows for tipping up to vertical</li><li>Uses a <b>rechargeable battery</b>, and so:</li><ul><li>It can be plugged in continuously</li><li>It can be unplugged and moved for the best lighting experience (<b><i>very portable!</i></b>)</li></ul></ul>I don't know how long this little thing will last, but it seems pretty sturdy. My wife has an older version of what appears to be the same OEM product, and it is still going. I have several colleagues who have purchased this one after my recommendation, and they tell me it's working great for them.<p></p><p><br /></p>Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-35096497798428123692020-12-01T17:14:00.008-07:002020-12-01T17:18:07.176-07:00Seeing All Canvas LMS Submission Comments in One Place<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I hate submission comments in Canvas LMS. Students are given the impression that these are nice ways to send questions or comments to the instructor, but they are too easy to overlook. For example, the Canvas Teacher mobile app will send a notification whenever a student leaves a submission comment, but the notification text is often truncated and so it is impossible to see which assignment was commented on (even if the student commenting is clear). Furthermore, if you activate the notification, Canvas Teacher brings you to the dashboard as opposed to the comment itself and the notification is lost forever.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Today I discovered that in the "<b>Inbox</b>", which otherwise is for Canvas e-mails, there is the additional functionality to <b>see ALL SUBMISSION COMMENTS across ALL COURSES in one place</b>! Simply click on the "Inbox" and then go to the drop down box in the top left and select "<b>Submission Comments</b>" (as shown below). You can then review all recent submission comments and reply to them without even revisiting the assignment.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-rE0S7-okL8tKkRgtSQ29fEK-zwxqLuZ3P9KOwfM-gR6SOyO8-3WcjumA9Dd0diFP2ukjRjNVw_bIdOtYuRaNvcnGfwhFhS2NSInpLdWjXX72zFfi6v5kS83kK1x5TaM94mME/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Shows where to find "Inbox" and "Submission Comments" in Canvas LMS" data-original-height="1036" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-rE0S7-okL8tKkRgtSQ29fEK-zwxqLuZ3P9KOwfM-gR6SOyO8-3WcjumA9Dd0diFP2ukjRjNVw_bIdOtYuRaNvcnGfwhFhS2NSInpLdWjXX72zFfi6v5kS83kK1x5TaM94mME/w640-h323/Screen+Shot+2020-12-01+at+4.19.52+PM.png" title="Canvas LMS: "Submission Comments" under "Inbox" (drop-down in top left)" width="500" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">So now when I get a notification about a submission comment, I go directly to the Inbox rather than trying to hunt through all assignments (and eventually giving up).</div><br /> <p></p>Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-16611356792381867802020-09-04T12:11:00.007-07:002020-09-05T10:22:42.942-07:00Advanced Zoom: Using Slides as Virtual Background<p style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizK-TYkjAWWmUb1ABZen7t9S0JMsskkTAesGRQ2_ujT1dA_BYBX2X9u2mNTGJUSpSVXJcgauegBgnBQUo56LGN8NFczGiGfbbx2CzYH3OObi9HabEuWuamvtWur-I9nIC6Bc-5/s320/Zoom-Share-SlidesAsBackground.jpg" width="320" /></p><p>There is a beta feature in Zoom (version 5.2.0 and higher) that is easy to miss but can make for a slightly more exciting way to share slides. When sharing your screen, try clicking on the "<b>Advanced</b>" tab (top center) to reveal several useful options:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic7tF9fPnpVeaNaLHFpKjoQnOgrTgYRwccdhPIboOtLQi6TyqjEh3HTrAY7cXYdQ1VcKK0vFPxXs3MaVHc5mSawNAj1CZRJJ1EUAhPcWcw-IADkMzc1qyvsq0CDyvtP9RjUXp_/s1980/ZoomSharing-Advanced.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1312" data-original-width="1980" height="331" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic7tF9fPnpVeaNaLHFpKjoQnOgrTgYRwccdhPIboOtLQi6TyqjEh3HTrAY7cXYdQ1VcKK0vFPxXs3MaVHc5mSawNAj1CZRJJ1EUAhPcWcw-IADkMzc1qyvsq0CDyvtP9RjUXp_/w500-h331/ZoomSharing-Advanced.jpg" width="500" /></a></div><p>There is a beta feature, "<b><a href="https://support.zoom.us/hc/en-us/articles/360046912351-Sharing-slides-as-a-Virtual-Background" target="_blank">Slides as Virtual Background</a></b>," that lets you choose a slide presentation. Sadly, it only supports PowerPoint presentations at the moment. This is strange because it first converts the PPTX to a PDF and then displays the PDF instead (which means your animations and slide transitions will be removed). So it seems like they should be able to support a PDF directly. I am hoping that will be added in the future.</p><p>Once you select a presentation, it will display behind you. It shows you a <b>slide advancer</b> (to move through your presentation). It also allows you to <b>move yourself around the slide</b> and <b>re-scale your size</b>. You can do this live, which lets you place yourself next to important features of the slide (or move yourself off of important features). By default, it scales you down and puts you in the bottom right corner.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizK-TYkjAWWmUb1ABZen7t9S0JMsskkTAesGRQ2_ujT1dA_BYBX2X9u2mNTGJUSpSVXJcgauegBgnBQUo56LGN8NFczGiGfbbx2CzYH3OObi9HabEuWuamvtWur-I9nIC6Bc-5/w500-h281/Zoom-Share-SlidesAsBackground.jpg" width="500" /></p><p>Again, this will be much nicer when it supports PDF's in general (as opposed to just PPTX). </p><p><b><i>CAVEAT ABOUT RECORDINGS:</i></b> For now, the <b>merged</b> video (showing speaker on top of slides) will <b>only record if you select to record locally.</b> Cloud recordings will capture the unmerged view. I suspect that eventually they will implement this feature in their cloud backend and the merged view will be able to be seen there too. However, <b>at least for now</b>, if you do this and want it recorded, <b><i>make sure that you record locally.</i></b></p><p><br /></p>Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-88420216213351149732020-07-30T21:24:00.000-07:002020-07-30T21:24:09.766-07:00Voting: Should It Be Hard?<h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="40d4">An argument for how <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">more</em> access to voting (not less) is not only fair but makes for a more deliberative voting population (also posted on <a href="https://link.medium.com/HNmz87yMy8 " target="_blank">Medium</a>).</h3><figure class="graf graf--figure" name="b7ec"><img alt="Image of “Vote” with three hands of different color shades reaching up toward it. Public domain image via Mohamed Hassan." class="graf-image" data-height="1509" data-image-id="1*LrDRHTbIBcY2emDwxmyqIw.jpeg" data-is-featured="true" data-width="1920" height="330" src="https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*LrDRHTbIBcY2emDwxmyqIw.jpeg" width="419" /><figcaption class="imageCaption">(<a class="markup--anchor markup--figure-anchor" data-href="https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1453473" href="https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1453473" rel="noopener" target="_blank">public domain image</a> from Mohamed Hassan)</figcaption></figure><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote graf--startsWithDoubleQuote" name="827a"><i>“Voting should take some effort. It means more that way.”</i></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="456f">This was a statement I copied from a social media post of an old acquaintance, but I have heard the same sentiment from many others. They say that voting is important, perhaps the most important assertion of someones feelings that they can make, and so a certain amount of inconvenience is necessary to adequately motivate someone to deliberate on important options and make an informed choice. This logic usually then takes a leap and leads to the conclusion that all voting should be in person; mail-in voting is “too easy” to encourage people to make good choices.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="97da">However, the danger of using in-person voting as an explicit barrier to entry to filter out those who do not “care enough” about voting is that <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">the burden of in-person voting is not the same across an entire population.</strong> Thus, accepting in-person voting as the mechanism that imposes costs (and requires effort) is an implicit statement that some votes are less valuable than others not because the voter cares less but because the voter happens to be more burdened by the process of in-person voting. But voting is meant to be a vehicle for those who will be affected by government actions to have a voice in deciding who will make up the government that takes those actions. <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">Those who are the most burdened by lack of infrastructure, for example, should certainly not be attenuated; if anything, <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">their voices should be amplified</em>.</strong></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="affd">Furthermore, it is false to suggest that voting by mail is far easier than voting in person. Voting by mail requires considerable deliberation, care, and effort to complete. Just because someone receives a ballot in the mail (which they may have had to go through a process to register to receive) does not mean that they will open it, complete it (perhaps bubbling in tens to hundreds of bubbles), package it properly to return, and deposit to a mailbox. You could argue that if someone lives next to a polling location, it would be much easier to wander in and vote electronically with little deliberation (just tapping randomly on a screen) than it would be to actually fill out and return a mail-in ballot properly. In fact,<strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"> if we were to abolish in-person voting entirely so that everyone would have to vote by mail</strong>, my guess is that <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">many voters who found in-person voting very convenient might start skipping some elections</strong> because they couldn’t be bothered with the longer process of mail-in voting.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="4dfe">And that’s the big point — <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">asymmetries of convenience create biased voting demographics</strong>. The issue is not that voting by mail is “so convenient” (because it isn’t!); it is that voting in person is, for some, prohibitively inconvenient. <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">There should be a space for <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">both</em> kinds of voting</strong> (and possibly more). If we really want a representative sample of a population, we have to ensure our sampling methods do not inadvertently (or otherwise) exclude parts of the population that will be affected by the outcome of the process of voting that they were excluded from.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8258"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">If you really do want voting to “take some effort”, it should be <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">motivational</em> effort that is equally applicable to everyone</strong> and not physical effort that varies from person to person or community to community. Where do we get that motivational-effort barrier? From very large numbers of people voting. If large numbers of people vote, then each person feels that their vote is inconsequential, and so the costs of voting will always be larger than the benefits. This surplus in the costs of voting will always present a motivational barrier, and the size of that barrier will be similar across the large population of voters. Thus, <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">magnifying the costs of voting is best accomplished by magnifying the number of people voting; it is poorly accomplished by magnifying the physical distance between some voters and their voting location.</strong></p>Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-36983012475511477492020-07-30T21:20:00.001-07:002020-07-30T21:20:54.125-07:00How to Read Epidemiological Parameters: Going from R0 to Predicting Number of Deaths<h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="9fa8"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Basic guide for using CDC data to understand how many people must die for a society to reach herd immunity (also posted on <a href="https://link.medium.com/0Vnoz85Ly8" target="_blank">Medium</a>)</em></h3><figure class="graf graf--figure graf--layoutOutsetLeft" name="b5ec"><img alt="David J. Sencer CDC Museum in Atlanta, GA (public domain image from Jim Gathany, downloaded from Wikimedia Commons)" class="graf-image" data-height="2728" data-image-id="1*Kyucjff2uPf3flzuxbroJA.jpeg" data-is-featured="true" data-width="4155" height="323" src="https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1200/1*Kyucjff2uPf3flzuxbroJA.jpeg" width="491" /><figcaption class="imageCaption">David J. Sencer CDC Museum in Atlanta, GA (<a class="markup--anchor markup--figure-anchor" data-href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:David_J._Sencer_CDC_Museum_Exterior.jpg" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:David_J._Sencer_CDC_Museum_Exterior.jpg" rel="noopener" target="_blank">public domain image from Jim Gathany</a>)</figcaption></figure><p class="graf graf--p" name="8ce7">An epidemic is not a single number. Knowing exactly how bad an epidemic is requires knowing both how quickly it is going to spread and how bad its effects will be on those who are affected by it. To make matters worse, parameters that characterize each of these separate factors usually cannot simply be “multiplied together” to understand their composed effects. They have to be filtered through dynamical models that properly account for depletion and saturation effects in populations. So it is understandable that the average person might have a hard time making sense of <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html" href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">CDC estimates of such parameters</a>, and it is not surprising that there are a lot of misconceptions and misperceptions about these topics.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="43f6">Let’s take the <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html" href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">CDC COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenario report</a> (as of May 20, 2020). This looks like a simple document at first, but it may be difficult to understand how to pull all of these numbers together. For a variety of reasons, parameters of interest to epidemiologists are difficult to estimate from data. One method to mitigate issues with incomplete or noisy data is to make assumptions that help fill in the gaps, but then your analysis is only as good as your assumptions. To be conservative and to understand how sensitive predictions are to these assumptions, the CDC has come up with five different “scenarios” that stretch across a wide range of assumptions. To keep things simple, we will focus on “<strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate</strong>”, which is the CDC’s best guess at where these epidemiological parameters are.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="3817">It is best to start with everyone’s favorite epidemiological parameter, <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">R0</strong>. This is the so-called “<a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">basic reproduction number</strong></a>.” It is a measure of how fast a contagious infection can spread. R0 is the combination of three factors:</p><ul class="postList"><li class="graf graf--li" name="a969">The rate of interaction between an infectious (contagious) person and others in the population (referred to as “<em class="markup--em markup--li-em">contact rate</em>” below in some places)</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="a488">The probability that an infectious person will infect someone that they come in contact with</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="c714">How long an infectious person stays infectious (we assume that after this period, they are in a permanent <em class="markup--em markup--li-em">recovered</em> state where they are <em class="markup--em markup--li-em">immune</em> to further infection)</li></ul><p class="graf graf--p" name="17b7">Essentially, R0 is a ratio of the rate that an infectious person infects others to the rate that an infectious person becomes well. This ratio can be interpreted as the number of people an infectious person infects before they themselves stop being infectious. If R0 is less than 1, then a disease will naturally die out because (on average) those infected will not be able to infect someone else before they become well. If R0 is greater than 1, then we have a so-called <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_%28epidemiology%29" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">endemic</strong></a>. That means that the infectious disease will be constantly maintained at some background level; some fraction of the population will always be either currently infectious or recovered. Interestingly, this fraction is not 100%. As an infectious disease spreads through a population, the number of those who are susceptible to further infection declines to a point where it is rare for infectious individuals to encounter them (contacts with infected and recovered are far more common). This means that when susceptible individuals are rare, each infectious individual spreads less of the infection during the time window that they are infectious. This is the so-called <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">herd immunity</strong></a>. A fraction of the population can stably remain susceptible because they are protected by the large numbers of others who have already had the disease and buffer them against contact with those who are currently infectious. The fraction of the population that will remain susceptible at the so-called <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">endemic equilibrium</strong></a> is <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">1/R0</strong>. Likewise, the fraction of those in a population that must have been infected (<strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">or vaccinated, if possible</em></strong>) in order to achieve herd immunity is <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">(1–1/R0)</strong>. I should note that <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">this simplified model assumes that infectious people eventually become recovered and <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">stay that way</em></strong>; things get more complicated if immunity is not long lasting.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="fafd">So what does the endemic equilibrium (“herd immunity”) look like for COVID-19 (assuming long-lasting immunity)? Here is what CDC estimates for R0.</p><figure class="graf graf--figure" name="66fb"><img alt="CDC estimates of R0 for COVID-19 for different scenarios. R0 is shown to be 2.5 in most likely scenario." class="graf-image" data-height="270" data-image-id="1*kTSRlZfnbD5ms786svZBzw.png" data-width="958" height="110" src="https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*kTSRlZfnbD5ms786svZBzw.png" width="392" /><figcaption class="imageCaption"><a class="markup--anchor markup--figure-anchor" data-href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html" href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">CDC estimates</a> of R0 for COVID-19</figcaption></figure><p class="graf graf--p" name="9008">Again, <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">focusing only on Scenario 5</strong>, we take <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">R0=2.5</strong>, which means that <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">any infectious person will have an opportunity to infect 2.5 other people on average</strong>. So we then estimate that 1/R0=1/2.5=<strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">40% of the population will be able to avoid infection</strong> so long as <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">the other 60% of the population goes through an infection <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">or is vaccinated</em></strong>. So exactly how many people is that? In the United States, the population is a little over 325 million people (compare this to the world population of 7.8 billion people). So that means that 60% of the 325M people in the USA must be infected to achieve herd immunity. That’s <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">195M people in the USA </strong>(<strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">4.68 billion people worldwide</strong>).</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8823">But not everyone who is infected sees symptoms let alone has to go to a hospital or suffers an early death. If we go back to the CDC data, we see that…</p><figure class="graf graf--figure" name="a9df"><img alt="CDC estimates for asymptotic ratio and symptomatic case fatality ratio for COVID-19. Most likely estimates are 35% and 0.004." class="graf-image" data-height="611" data-image-id="1*owg4H4JP3HTPE172p-0jDg.png" data-width="960" height="250" src="https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*owg4H4JP3HTPE172p-0jDg.png" width="393" /><figcaption class="imageCaption"><a class="markup--anchor markup--figure-anchor" data-href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html" href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">CDC estimates</a> for asymptotic ratio and symptomatic case fatality ratio for COVID-19</figcaption></figure><p class="graf graf--p" name="96b4">Again, looking at Scenario 5, we see that <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">35% of those who have an infection show no symptoms</strong>. We also see that <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">those other 65% who show symptoms will suffer fatality at an overall (averaged across age groups) rate of 0.004 (i.e., 0.4%). </strong>That seems like a very small number! But we have to keep in mind that <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">this is a very contagious disease</strong> (any infectious person infects 2.5 other people). So we need to combine the information on contagion with the information on case fatality rate. For the 325M people in the USA, we already calculated that 195M will have the disease. So then, at the endemic equilibrium (“herd immunity”):</p><ul class="postList"><li class="graf graf--li" name="9376">195M*65% = 127M people will have shown symptoms in the USA</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="91f0">127M*0.4% = <strong class="markup--strong markup--li-strong">508,000 people will die in the USA</strong></li></ul><p class="graf graf--p" name="baa1">And worldwide, we would expect 12.2M people will die. <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">So even at that very small case fatality rate, <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">there will be a lot of death </em></strong>(and even those that escape symptoms may still feel long-term effects of COVID-19 that we are only starting to understand now)<strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">.</strong> Just as a reference, 38,000 people died in car accidents in 2018 in the USA. <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">We try to prevent deaths by car accidents by preventing car accidents and trying to make cars safe so that people will survive accidents that happen.</strong> When we ask people to wear masks and social distance, this is not unlike people’s legal obligation to wear seatbelts and drive cars that meet safety standards.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="f24f">Now, a lot of people say that there is no way to prevent these deaths, and so it is better to suffer them early instead of dragging out our march to the endemic equilibrium. In order to evaluate whether this is a good argument, we should take a look at another part of the CDC data:</p><figure class="graf graf--figure" name="db37"><img alt="CDC estimates for symptomatic case hospitalization ratio for COVID-19. Most likely overall estimate is 0.041." class="graf-image" data-height="409" data-image-id="1*ZvRzjtr3LbiyjiOXpKwhTA.png" data-width="958" height="168" src="https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*ZvRzjtr3LbiyjiOXpKwhTA.png" width="392" /><figcaption class="imageCaption"><a class="markup--anchor markup--figure-anchor" data-href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html" href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">CDC estimates</a> for symptomatic case hospitalization ratio for COVID-19</figcaption></figure><p class="graf graf--p" name="b309">Focusing on Scenario 5’s “Overall” estimate, we see that <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">each person who shows symptoms will have a 3.4% chance of being hospitalized</strong>. So that means we can estimate that for the population of 325M people in the USA, the 127M people we calculated above to show symptoms, 3.4% of them will have to be hospitalized, meaning that <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">COVID-19 contribute 4.318M patients to hospitals in the USA</strong> (103M COVID-19 hospital patients worldwide). The question is <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">whether we have enough hospital beds in the USA to accommodate these 4.318M people <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">all at once</em></strong>. If we do not, then those that would have otherwise recovered will have to suffer through the disease without the support of medical professionals and medical technology. In other words, the case fatality rate for this <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">subset of COVID-19 symptomatic individuals turned away from hospitals may rise to much higher than the 0.4% mentioned above. </strong>So this is really the essence of the movement to <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flattening_the_curve" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flattening_the_curve" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">flatten the curve</strong></a><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"> </strong>(e.g., by wearing masks and social distancing to reduce the effective contact rate). Even if it is impossible to avoid the 508,000 deaths predicted above, if infections can be spread out over a long amount of time, we can help to ensure that at any instant there will be enough hospital beds. Furthermore, <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">if we stretch out the infection curve far enough, we may develop a vaccine within the curve’s duration.</strong> Vaccinations are a game changer because they provide a quick shortcut (that is hopefully much safer than a full-blown infection) to herd immunity.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="f79d">But if we wanted to reduce that 508,000 without a vaccine, how would we do it? Remember that I said that R0 (a parameter of infection spread) is determined in part by the rate that an infectious individual contacts other individuals in the population. <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">If we can devise long-term behavioral or technological methods to reduce this contact rate </strong>(beyond temporary inconveniences, such as wearing masks)<strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">, then we can change R0 for COVID-19 for good</strong> (or at least for a sufficiently long time), thereby meaning that our endemic equilibrium (“herd immunity”) will occur with a <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">much higher number of people who avoid infection <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">(and even vaccination)</em> entirely.</strong> How do we do that? Here are three potentially powerful ways.</p><ul class="postList"><li class="graf graf--li" name="22b5">We can <strong class="markup--strong markup--li-strong">remove hand shaking and other similar kinds of contact</strong> as a greeting (thereby bringing the baseline contact rate for every individual in the population to a much lower level than it was before COVID-19).</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="260c">We can <strong class="markup--strong markup--li-strong">develop rapid, highly available, and frequent testing protocols </strong>that can quickly identify infected individuals so that they can be isolated (thereby bringing their personal contact rate much lower than others).</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="84c0">We can <strong class="markup--strong markup--li-strong">develop sophisticated contact-tracing techniques</strong> that can further identify <em class="markup--em markup--li-em">potentially infected individuals </em>so that they can be isolated (thereby bringing their personal contact rate much lower than others).</li></ul><p class="graf graf--p" name="52aa">These behavioral and technological changes can actually improve our long-term COVID-19 outcome <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">even if a vaccine is not developed</em>. So it may not be inevitable that hundreds of thousands of <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">more</em> people have to die (at the time of this writing, over 110,000 people in the USA had death certificates that indicated COVID-19 as a cause of death).</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="0b7d">Medical professionals can develop vaccines, researchers can develop novel technologies, and we can all alter our behaviors. <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">Unfortunately, there are additional challenges in the near future that will make all of this even more urgent.</strong> In particular, we are facing a <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">flu season ahead of us</strong>. Individuals who contract COVID-19 and the seasonal flu simultaneously may be in an untenable situation. Additionally, the medical system will face demands not only from COVID-19 but from those with the flu (but possibly not COVID-19) who also need hospitalization. Normally the medical system would have enough capacity to serve the seasonal flu population (although there are still seasonal flu deaths every year, just not as much as COVID-19). However, if the medical system has to face flu and COVID-19 along with baseline demands and any other emergent demands (other pandemics, etc.), then that will put our society as a whole in an untenable situation. The <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">flu shot</strong></a> may be especially important to encourage this season.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="e1d5">Of course, there are many other interesting figures in that <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html" href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">CDC report</a> that we could further analyze that relate to how long the average COVID-19 hospital patient takes to recover, which would help us figure out more quantitative details about the amount of each of the kinds of possible actions discussed above will be necessary to prevent hospitals reaching capacity. For now, I will leave that analysis as an exercise for the reader. In the meanwhile, get some rest, stay safe, and stay healthy!</p>Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-15027141548062572302020-06-12T11:44:00.003-07:002020-06-12T11:52:10.175-07:00Animal Behavior virtual conferences for Summer/Fall 2020 that are free (or nearly free)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigv2AUrPVVY-oEAi8pRDMmqo2-Wx-kqk12_6bD7mOuRdkkpHi9AzBUwA_5075oB9zILOIpJaKEmPpOtHCZ_MGhtEGjElVJbz61O6lXIf0jni7U5gAWYnyZ2f84K_XUTs_OfjXr/s2336/bird_lore.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2336" data-original-width="1648" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigv2AUrPVVY-oEAi8pRDMmqo2-Wx-kqk12_6bD7mOuRdkkpHi9AzBUwA_5075oB9zILOIpJaKEmPpOtHCZ_MGhtEGjElVJbz61O6lXIf0jni7U5gAWYnyZ2f84K_XUTs_OfjXr/s320/bird_lore.jpg" /></a></div>
A silver lining of COVID-19 is that amazing conferences have become far easier and far cheaper to attend. For interdisciplinary researchers, you can now dip your toe into venues that you might not otherwise be able to justify spending the resources on. So it is a great time to branch out!<br />
<br />
As an example, there are <b>FOUR virtual Animal Behavior conferences</b> that will be taking place soon this summer or early fall. They are free or nearly free (at least for students), and all of them are still accepting talk/poster abstracts at the time of this posting. If you are doing empirical or theoretical work in animal behavior and would normally present your work at a more methods-based conference, this is a great opportunity to get feedback from the larger behavior community. If you are not currently directly researching behavior, you might really enjoy just hearing reports of great, state-of-the-art research into animal behavior.<br />
<br />
My background is in engineering, and I have found that animal behavior conferences to be the most educational and useful in generating bio-inspiration for me. These conferences showcase how animals interact with each other and the world around them in potentially adaptive ways. Plus, it's a great showcase of natural history for those who don't feel like they are naturally naturalists!<br />
<br />
<b><i>So check these out. And this is probably not an exhaustive list!</i></b><br />
<div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><b>ABS 2020 Virtual Meeting</b> [USA animal behavior]</li>
<ul>
<li>Nearly free:</li>
<ul>
<li>Free registration for student members</li>
<li>Student membership is $25</li>
</ul>
<li>Talk abstracts due: June 17, 2020</li>
<li>Conference: July 28–30, 2020</li>
<li><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.animalbehaviorsociety.org/2020-virtual/&source=gmail&ust=1592072239275000&usg=AFQjCNEY0lKMVdssLhyzFzmXQwf7POSs7A" href="https://www.animalbehaviorsociety.org/2020-virtual/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">https://www.<wbr></wbr>animalbehaviorsociety.org/<wbr></wbr>2020-virtual/</a></li>
</ul>
<li><b>Animal Behavior Live</b> [new annual venue; global]</li>
<ul>
<li>Free registration</li>
<li>Talk abstracts due: June 30, 2020</li>
<li>Conference: 20 & 21 August 2020</li>
<li><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://animalbehaviour.live/abstract.html&source=gmail&ust=1592072239275000&usg=AFQjCNHctX7UE4XbRH9vOUC9sZVcLtzQWA" href="http://animalbehaviour.live/abstract.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">http://animalbehaviour.live/</a></li>
</ul>
<li><b>ASAB Virtual Conference </b>[British animal behaviour]</li>
<ul>
<li>Free registration</li>
<li>Talk abstracts due: 16th June 2020</li>
<li>Conference: 16th July 2020</li>
<li><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.asabvirtual.org/abstract-submission&source=gmail&ust=1592072239275000&usg=AFQjCNFOse4kRR37FFjYnNIQ9CoGhl-QkA" href="https://www.asabvirtual.org/abstract-submission" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">https://www.asabvirtual.org/</a></li>
</ul>
<li><b>ASSAB Virtual Conference</b> [Australian animal behaviour]</li>
<ul>
<li>Free registration</li>
<li>[ info coming soon ]</li>
<li>Conference: 28th September – 1st October, 2020</li>
<li><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.assab.org/&source=gmail&ust=1592072239275000&usg=AFQjCNESsWgufNojtTcTm_ffXjWE2IKOiA" href="https://www.assab.org/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">https://www.assab.org/</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="text-align: left;"><ul>
</ul>
</ul>
</div>
Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-42990728553892115762020-06-02T12:14:00.005-07:002021-02-21T18:53:35.901-07:00Zoom Virtual Background for Short/Coffee Breaks ("I'll be right back!")You might know that Zoom has a <a href="https://support.zoom.us/hc/en-us/articles/115001286183-Nonverbal-Feedback-During-Meetings#:~:text=If%20a%20participant%20clicked%20on,name%20and%20clicking%20Lower%20Hand." target="_blank">non-verbal feedback option</a> under the Participants list that includes a "<b>need a break</b>." You could use this to indicate when you have stepped away, but it is intended to indicate to the speaker that you are requesting a break.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So what is an option to indicate to everyone that you have stepped away and aren't just having video problems? One option is to create a <a href="https://support.zoom.us/hc/en-us/articles/210707503-Virtual-Background" target="_blank"><b>virtual background</b></a> that includes some status signage (or, alternatively, you can make the signage part of your <a href="https://support.zoom.us/hc/en-us/articles/201363203-Customizing-your-Profile" target="_blank">profile picture</a> that shows when your camera is off). Here is an image I put behind me to indicate to others that I've stepped away very briefly and will be back soon.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCOwcQijohlTrB33wNMM-uQd1lFGHQpycSVGjzjRYE5bsRsbckJU1Lxq3SDc_Kk5WKq0Fmgbk2sy5aBFTNWSr0zNl2yrmQH4yNtwWPANzyR6oNBE7NyhcC2ZHqPh5cIC2_zczw/s1600/be_right_back.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1600" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCOwcQijohlTrB33wNMM-uQd1lFGHQpycSVGjzjRYE5bsRsbckJU1Lxq3SDc_Kk5WKq0Fmgbk2sy5aBFTNWSr0zNl2yrmQH4yNtwWPANzyR6oNBE7NyhcC2ZHqPh5cIC2_zczw/s400/be_right_back.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
You can <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AEjWlfYMW_pPfDdV7ieV_GTHX-cS_vT2/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">download and use the image above</a>. You can also download the <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1znXX0_Ns8e9_aT3kO01wyqenS-YSOZcV/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">PowerPoint version</a> so you can make edits to it. Here I am with my virtual background behind me. Of course, normally I would only put this up when I was out of the room. :-)</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1600" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJWqswsaffdC77YXHTJiHKYSCZ7ZJTsyj0hrpO17KsEEYmwM61T5RSgrXOuRdGRxzGlgrwZxqSNZvUm3PjTuDTFz4Joxon7lg2SLXojlqOW32uoUxadYfhjVQgTbRD_Xe0Cj1X/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-06-02+at+12.09.17+PM.png" width="400" /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Another option is to print out a tiny version of <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AEjWlfYMW_pPfDdV7ieV_GTHX-cS_vT2/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">the image above</a> and hang it in front of your camera. :-)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><i>UPDATE:</i></b> Another option for this is to combine Zoom with a virtual camera from <a href="https://www.mmhmm.app/" target="_blank">mmHmm</a>. mmHmm has "Be right back" options that you can quickly switch on and off with far fewer steps than raw Zoom.</div>
Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-45085641390015222222020-05-04T15:35:00.000-07:002020-05-04T15:35:38.381-07:00Reduce Student Anxiety: Introduce them to "What-If Grades" in Canvas GradebookAre your students getting anxious and wondering what their final grades might look like under different “what-if” scenarios related to any assignments yet to be graded? A lot of faculty and students don’t realize that the Canvas gradebook supports <b>“What-If Grades”</b>, which allow a student to click on any grade (even ones not posted) and change it to a <b><i>hypothetical</i></b> version to see what the hypothetical effect would be on their final grade.<br />
<br />
<b><i>Check it out:</i></b><br />
<ul>
<li><a href="https://community.canvaslms.com/docs/DOC-16534-4212829282" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: large;">Canvas Support: How do I approximate my assignment scores using the What-If Grades feature?</span></a></li>
</ul>
Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-13357680385884276942020-04-06T20:53:00.001-07:002020-04-06T20:53:18.847-07:00Teaching on Zoom: Fixing Problems with Students Joining Authentication-Only RoomsTo help prevent "#Zoombombing" while still allowing for all of the features that, when not being exploited, provide for productive digital classroom experiences, many universities have <a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=1GSoUIDnzmVAEah40-oGChgNITO4MIQ1P" target="_blank">recommended that faculty turn on authentication-only Zoom rooms</a> for their classes. For most students, this means that they may have to follow one extra click when joining their classrooms that leads them through the single-sign-on (SSO) process and handoff back to Zoom. Unfortunately, this process is not as simple for some students, especially if they already have their own non-University Zoom accounts.<br />
<br />
Here are the instructions (<a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=1o_oaS6WuuPBrlZMzh4NJ4FO6hqM3d4Bk" target="_blank">also linked as a PDF</a> or a <a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=15S-YmoPRDIaxhe_GCXTem5ob0Aigtx8F" target="_blank">DOCX</a>) I have been giving to my students to help ensure that they access my authentication-only Zoom classroom using their university account. Of course, there are a few small aspects of these instructions that are customized for <a href="http://www.asu.edu/" target="_blank">ASU</a>, but it would be easy to modify the instructions for your institution.<br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
<h3 style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14pt;">Instructions for Accessing Zoom Room as Authenticated ASU Zoom User</span></b></h3>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=9453241" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">To help mitigate problems related to "Zoom-bombing", your course Zoom link may be configured to only allow authenticated ASU users into the room. If you are having trouble connecting to the Zoom class room with your properly authenticated ASU account, you should try following these steps:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<ol start="1" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><b><i><span style="color: red; font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">DO NOT</span></i></b><b><span style="color: red; font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"> use the normal link to enter the room</span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">Instead</span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">, go to </span><a href="https://asu.zoom.us/" target="_blank" title="ASU Zoom"><b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">https://asu.zoom.us/</span></b></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"> and then click on the </span><a href="https://asu.zoom.us/signin" target="_blank" title="ASU Zoom: Log In"><b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">Log In</span></b></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"> button<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">Once you are logged in to ASU Zoom, click on the "<b>JOIN A MEETING</b>" link in the <b>top right of ASU Zoom</b><o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">Use the Zoom ID: <b>(10-digit code from your instructor; also at the end of course link)<br /></b><o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ol>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">These steps are designed to ensure that you are logged in to Zoom with your ASU ID.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><b>If the above steps still do not let you into the room,</b></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> then you need to open your Zoom app and make sure to "<b>Switch Account</b>" to your ASU account. Follow these steps:</span></div>
<ol start="1" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">Open your <b>Zoom</b> application<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">Click on your profile image, as in the image below, and go to "<b>Switch Account</b>"<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFWk6_KlnlfTP8PnJlN6U9N7GSb48I0YzdKCu3orXRpOFHRZlFi6bij4YwZh3cvfUzElz_f1wFordrIoP0nSytCRRVLOUD6xT-5vmkz02aClCloUZrrUZlfJJV8hz4aai_S0Za/s1600/zoomSSO_01_logout.png" imageanchor="1" style="font-family: Times; font-size: medium; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1122" data-original-width="512" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFWk6_KlnlfTP8PnJlN6U9N7GSb48I0YzdKCu3orXRpOFHRZlFi6bij4YwZh3cvfUzElz_f1wFordrIoP0nSytCRRVLOUD6xT-5vmkz02aClCloUZrrUZlfJJV8hz4aai_S0Za/s400/zoomSSO_01_logout.png" width="181" /></a><br /><br /><o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">Select "<b>Sign In with SSO</b>", as shown below:<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYtLuT76BQK11Zn8CIIHPY0sjH5zt7_P1FiavN1Grd7ygC7zwLWQWwFaZZQ97ZsUx1sPSb9FSkFbVUaRvy9czM88RHaVgfM-WVFcWsK3XOl5314TE1JcdXKZhLlJbwPWc7m4mu/s1600/zoomSSO_02_SSO.png" imageanchor="1" style="font-family: Times; font-size: medium; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="1204" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYtLuT76BQK11Zn8CIIHPY0sjH5zt7_P1FiavN1Grd7ygC7zwLWQWwFaZZQ97ZsUx1sPSb9FSkFbVUaRvy9czM88RHaVgfM-WVFcWsK3XOl5314TE1JcdXKZhLlJbwPWc7m4mu/s400/zoomSSO_02_SSO.png" width="400" /></a><o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">Use "<b>asu</b>" as the <b>Company Domain</b>, as shown below:<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzNEyZco7IKp0KBzi0zH6hT4AvKse_JRXkmUmLim_LbZxb1Hhtxi5pkOHuROvhJ4mRCSVf9VRhVRq4yzJ8nFJehtiwtupjbkbfPkGzCVElON8dNt_N5cOlsiJaqdMPd4022aOM/s1600/zoomSSO_03_domain.png" imageanchor="1" style="font-family: Times; font-size: medium; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="1204" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzNEyZco7IKp0KBzi0zH6hT4AvKse_JRXkmUmLim_LbZxb1Hhtxi5pkOHuROvhJ4mRCSVf9VRhVRq4yzJ8nFJehtiwtupjbkbfPkGzCVElON8dNt_N5cOlsiJaqdMPd4022aOM/s400/zoomSSO_03_domain.png" width="400" /></a><o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">Follow the prompts</span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"> to login to ASU Zoom and return to your application<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">Use your <b>course’s meeting ID</b> (or the <b>normal course link</b>) to connect to the Zoom room<br /><br /><o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ol>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">Those steps should help ensure that you are able to get into the class Zoom room with your <b>authenticated ASU Zoom account</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-61168229171015117142020-03-23T20:08:00.001-07:002020-03-23T20:08:02.422-07:00Teaching on Zoom: Automatic Subtitle Captions on a WhiteboardIn the wake of COVID-19, faculty are looking for ways in which they can extend their original in-class teaching approaches to on-line while maintaining high accessibility.<br />
<br />
I recently saw a request by someone using <a href="http://www.zoom.us/" target="_blank"><b>Zoom</b></a> for <a href="https://support.zoom.us/hc/en-us/articles/205677665-Sharing-a-whiteboard" target="_blank"><b>whiteboard</b></a> capability with automatic, real-time captions that have subtitles for the audio. This capability does not currently exist in Zoom's native whiteboard. However, <a href="https://support.office.com/en-us/article/present-with-real-time-automatic-captions-or-subtitles-in-powerpoint-68d20e49-aec3-456a-939d-34a79e8ddd5f" target="_blank"><b>real-time subtitles</b> are available in presentation applications like <b>Microsoft Powerpoint</b></a>. In addition, <a href="https://support.zoom.us/hc/en-us/articles/115005706806-Using-annotation-tools-on-a-shared-screen-or-whiteboard" target="_blank">Zoom annotations</a> <i>(if enabled)</i> allow a presenter (or anyone in a Zoom room) to annotate any shared screen as if it was a Zoom whiteboard. So I came up with the following solution to the whiteboard-with-subtitltes problem. Note that other variations on this solution exist, but this particular solution was crafted to be the most generalizable and prevent the most conflicts with Zoom and Microsoft competing for access to a single microphone.<br />
<br />
Here are a list of steps to make it happen. You can also see the <a href="https://youtu.be/tX03dtp9KHU" target="_blank">video below</a> if you prefer to see a demo of these steps.<br />
<ol>
<li>Open a Zoom room on a desktop machine that runs PowerPoint 2019 or later (including Office 365 versions of PowerPoint)</li>
<ul>
<li>Do <b><i>not</i></b> share audio or video<br /></li>
</ul>
<li>From the Zoom room, share the desktop that powerpoint will use when it goes into full-screen mode during a presentation<br /></li>
<li>Start a <b>blank PowerPoint presentation<br /></b></li>
<li>Click on the <a href="https://support.office.com/en-us/article/present-with-real-time-automatic-captions-or-subtitles-in-powerpoint-68d20e49-aec3-456a-939d-34a79e8ddd5f" target="_blank">"Toggle Subtitles" button shown in the bottom left corner of the PowerPoint presentation</a></li>
<ul>
<li>You should now see live subtitles being added to your presentation as you speak<br /></li>
</ul>
<li>Join your Zoom room from a tablet device</li>
<ul>
<li>This time, connect with audio so that your audience listens to you through your tablet presence</li>
<li>You should see the shared, blank PowerPoint screen on the tablet device<br /></li>
</ul>
<li>Use the "<a href="https://support.zoom.us/hc/en-us/articles/115005706806-Using-annotation-tools-on-a-shared-screen-or-whiteboard" target="_blank">Annotations</a>" button in the bottom left of the tablet view to open the annotations</li>
<ul>
<li>Note that "Annotations" has to be enabled for your Zoom room</li>
<li>You can find the setting to <a href="https://support.zoom.us/hc/en-us/articles/115005706806-Using-annotation-tools-on-a-shared-screen-or-whiteboard" target="_blank">enable Annotations in the advanced settings</a> on your Zoom web portal</li>
<li>When annotations are enabled, anyone can use them, and so <b>make sure you trust your audience</b></li>
</ul>
<li>Use your tablet (perhaps with stylus) to draw on the white screen provided by PowerPoint as PowerPoint subtitles below your writing</li>
<ul>
<li>You can use the eraser and clear (trash can) buttons to get a blank screen<br /></li>
</ul>
<li>If you are going to record, I recommend using "Record to Cloud" from the tablet device</li>
<ul>
<li>Again, the goal is to take the load off of the desktop machine that is doing the live captioning</li>
</ul>
</ol>
<div>
Here is a video I put together that demonstrates the above steps:</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/tX03dtp9KHU/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tX03dtp9KHU?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0Tempe, AZ, USA33.4255104 -111.940005433.2133904 -112.2627289 33.6376304 -111.61728190000001tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-31734962503412864262019-12-02T09:56:00.000-07:002019-12-02T10:07:10.309-07:00Woodpeckers can ring and run tooOur <a href="https://amzn.to/2RiQ4Uq" target="_blank">Ring Pro video doorbell</a> recently caught this red-headed ding-dong ditcher visiting our front door:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/eMGBs8f2uR8/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eMGBs8f2uR8?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
We answered this ring, but we weren't around about an hour later when it returned!<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/_lmHNfaEWdA/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_lmHNfaEWdA?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
After checking with our neighbors, we found that <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gila_woodpecker" target="_blank">gila woodpeckers</a> have apparently been terrorizing some other doorbells and surveillance cameras in the area as well. It is pretty adorable... until you have to replace the device.<br />
<br />
In this case, hopefully being startled twice by the Ring's chime is enough to encourage it to move on!Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0Phoenix, AZ, USA33.4483771 -112.0740372999999932.6020036 -113.36493079999998 34.2947506 -110.78314379999999tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-46444988232915884502019-08-12T08:04:00.000-07:002019-08-12T08:04:43.843-07:00Tribute to Mom, Eileen Pavlic (1942–2019)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<i>My mother, Eileen Pavlic, died on Tuesday, August 6, 2019, due to complications from a stroke. She had been battling cancer for a year, and immunotherapy had been working well to reduce the extent of her cancer. She was enthusiastic about the progress of the treatment and had even started to buy new clothes, anticipating at least another year of life. Then, surprisingly and very sadly, she suffered a stroke. We learned that metastatic cancer is a risk factor for stroke, and so this outcome was not a complete surprise to the doctors even though it was devastating to us. She was buried in an outfit that she had recently ordered and had never had the opportunity to wear herself.</i></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<i>We know she was very impressed and encouraged with the immunotherapy she received, and so I hope you will consider <a href="https://www.giveto.osu.edu/makeagift/OnlineGivingDonation.aspx?Source_Code=DEV_AG-MED_CHRI-JamesWeb-ON-S&Fund=313545" target="_blank">donating</a> to the <a href="http://cancer.osu.edu/PIIO" target="_blank">Pelotonia Institute for Immuno-Oncology (PIIO)</a> or another reputable charity advancing the use of immunotherapy for the treatment and possible cure for cancer. </i></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<i>I shared the comments below during her funeral on August 9, 2019. You can also read her <a href="https://www.snyderfuneralhomes.com/obituary/eileen-m-pavlic/" target="_blank">obituary on-line</a>.</i></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<hr />
<div style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A Son's Tribute to His Mother, Eileen M. Pavlic (September 22, 1942 – August 6, 2019)</span></i></b></div>
<hr />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQnD5GFUHTe8fcVugGIpzLDHBqdhI1x5ASrtYJ0gBrlc84fxbrMLeLbkd7gWsCFn6UEU59s9yPXlcJ85SHHJ8SJD28hBncoV9FPCjf3exOhZIRn83BQBfMbv3dtAP4_TaXAFbZ/s1600/lottery_balls.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1026" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQnD5GFUHTe8fcVugGIpzLDHBqdhI1x5ASrtYJ0gBrlc84fxbrMLeLbkd7gWsCFn6UEU59s9yPXlcJ85SHHJ8SJD28hBncoV9FPCjf3exOhZIRn83BQBfMbv3dtAP4_TaXAFbZ/s320/lottery_balls.png" width="256" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Looking back on your life with someone is less like watching a movie from beginning to end but more like drawing lottery balls from a tumbling urn. There’s one random memory. Then another. Then another. It is only after drawing enough of them that we can look back on them, sort them out, and start seeing hints of a bigger picture. That’s how it was for me when thinking about what to say today, and I only hope this story comes across a little smoother than those lottery balls.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">She always wanted me to become a medical doctor, and I was excited to oblige when I was younger. Books and models mom and dad would get me about anatomy and physiology were interesting to me, but ultimately, I think the real source of the appeal was not the content so much as the connection with her. At some point, I pivoted away from medicine toward things like mathematics, computing, and, ultimately, engineering. Even mom might not see how this has anything to do with her, but from my perspective looking back, I remember the young me watching her navigate a DOS prompt, manipulate revealed codes in WordPerfect documents, and designing merge fields for office automation, and she became my model for someone who could learn to use tools around her to do great things. She never viewed herself as a teacher – she would often excuse herself from philosophical discussions that dad and I would have by saying that “she didn’t go to college” – but she was one of my greatest teachers. Today, I teach college students, and I only hope that some of them could be as motivated by me as I was by her. And it’s no surprise to me that biology has shown up in a lot of my engineering research, which sometimes makes me think that the younger version of me is still trying to turn my PhD into an MD to make mom proud.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So, yeah, looking back on life with mom is a little like drawing lottery balls. And by giving me the opportunity to do so, mom’s given me one last lesson – that being her son was winning the jackpot.</span><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqP0eMOs2m12YEPCueVkOkLlYHZ57t4n5fcU2Cg_Igc1snvn-AFiHbQc1oyhDD4JYeFXXoGZFw87x-eCTz2cNohogLUOchZQcUtpRyLC5d7UfkhbeaXVCkXXMDFecA3iw90yhS/s1600/mom_and_me.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1136" data-original-width="1208" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqP0eMOs2m12YEPCueVkOkLlYHZ57t4n5fcU2Cg_Igc1snvn-AFiHbQc1oyhDD4JYeFXXoGZFw87x-eCTz2cNohogLUOchZQcUtpRyLC5d7UfkhbeaXVCkXXMDFecA3iw90yhS/s320/mom_and_me.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span>Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-52874404281312021172019-04-24T21:51:00.000-07:002019-04-24T21:52:26.140-07:00Long, non-coding RNA serve an important role in the regulatory pathway controlling human skin wound healingIt seems like there has been a lot of cool <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wound_healing" target="_blank">wound-healing</a> research results published lately. At the end of March, there was the result that <a href="http://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat9691" target="_blank">bacteriophages hide their bacterial hosts from being cleared by mammalian immune response</a>. Last week there was the result that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900917116" target="_blank">aphids soldier nymphs use their own wound-healing proteins to plug gall holes</a>. And now there's <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814097116" target="_blank">this new result</a> on the <b><i>mechanism</i></b> underlying the role of <b>long, noncoding RNA</b> (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_non-coding_RNA" target="_blank">lncRNA</a>) in wound healing of human skin.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>So what's long, non-coding RNA?</b> The DNA in the human genome has to be converted to RNA, in much the same way computer code might be converted into assembly language, before it can then be converted into proteins (like assembly language being converted into object code that can actually be executed by the computer). Up until recently, biology has focused entirely on this pipeline -- DNA to RNA to protein. However, there are some bits of DNA that stop at RNA, which are termed "non-coding RNA" because they don't end up producing any proteins. They just float around until they naturally break down. However, there are hints that they are not merely intermediate transitional objects and that they can be functional molecules themselves. One of those hints is that they can be consistently turned on ("up-regulated") in certain situations. However, this doesn't mean that they're actually doing anything. There are technical details that make it useful to distinguish whether these non-coding RNA are short or long. I won't get into those. Just know, for the reset of this post, that "lncRNA" represents "long, non-coding RNA", which is a type of these mysterious molecules.
When healthy human skin is wounded, the normal response happens to involve the up-regulation of one of these lncRNA's is consistently generated more than in undamaged tissue, but no one knows why.<br />
<br />
In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814097116" target="_blank">this paper</a>, they show that the molecule actually sequesters other mechanisms within the tissue that would normally turn off the migration of cells important for wound healing. So the lncRNA's are functional -- they get turned on when the skin is wounded, and that sets of a chain reaction that disables other mechanisms that would normally keep wound healing processes turned off. So the lncRNA's are an important step in the regulatory network. That's very cool. It not only helps scientists understand wound healing but also one more way in which lncRNA's can be functional -- not just junk molecules floating around waiting to be broken back down.<br />
<br />
Here is the primary source:<br />
<br />
<b>"Human skin long noncoding RNA WAKMAR1 regulates wound healing by enhancing keratinocyte migration"</b><br />
by Li et al.<br />
PNAS (2019), early edition<br />
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814097116">https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814097116</a><br />
<b><i><br /></i></b>
<b><i>Significance</i></b><br />
=====<br />
<i>Although constituting the majority of the transcriptional output of the human genome, the functional importance of long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) has only recently been recognized. The role of lncRNAs in wound healing is virtually unknown. Our study focused on a skin-specific lncRNA, termed “wound and keratinocyte migration-associated lncRNA 1” (WAKMAR1), which is down-regulated in wound-edge keratinocytes of human chronic nonhealing wounds compared with normal wounds under reepithelialization. We identified WAKMAR1 as being critical for keratinocyte migration and its deficiency as impairing wound reepithelialization. Mechanistically, WAKMAR1 interacts with DNA methyltransferases and interferes with the promoter methylation of the E2F1 gene, which is a key transcription factor controlling a network of migratory genes. This line of evidence demonstrates that lncRNAs play an essential role in human skin wound healing.</i><br />
=====<br />
<b><i><br /></i></b>
<b><i>Abstract</i></b><br />
=====<br />
<i>An increasing number of studies reveal the importance of long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) in gene expression control underlying many physiological and pathological processes. However, their role in skin wound healing remains poorly understood. Our study focused on a skin-specific lncRNA, LOC105372576, whose expression was increased during physiological wound healing. In human nonhealing wounds, however, its level was significantly lower compared with normal wounds under reepithelialization. We characterized LOC105372576 as a nuclear-localized, RNAPII-transcribed, and polyadenylated lncRNA. In keratinocytes, its expression was induced by TGF-β signaling. Knockdown of LOC105372576 and activation of its endogenous transcription, respectively, reduced and increased the motility of keratinocytes and reepithelialization of human ex vivo skin wounds. Therefore, LOC105372576 was termed “wound and keratinocyte migration-associated lncRNA 1” (WAKMAR1). Further study revealed that WAKMAR1 regulated a network of protein-coding genes important for cell migration, most of which were under the control of transcription factor E2F1. Mechanistically, WAKMAR1 enhanced E2F1 expression by interfering with E2F1 promoter methylation through the sequestration of DNA methyltransferases. Collectively, we have identified a lncRNA important for keratinocyte migration, whose deficiency may be involved in the pathogenesis of chronic wounds.</i><br />
=====Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-77065753821407189622019-04-20T17:29:00.000-07:002019-04-20T17:29:06.763-07:00Stochastic versus random: The difference is whether you're describing a model or a focal system<br />
It seems like there is a lot of confusion in quantitative modeling circles over the relationship between "<b>randomness</b>" and "<b>stochasticity</b>." This is in large part because the success of stochastic models to make sense of the world around us has led to wide use of stochastic modeling, so much that "stochastic" has become a near synonym for "random." However, the two terms are not identical.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_tJqS54inzjDa9XWbrso1BEdtw_QQq31atX8iWG087a4w89n_jzmdleoK6fXqBB9wXfWuDE4CjLJg6B1JNcCQMUtAcSgtQiie7sNRdlLJQg_AuUsbEXEUxfMvlZJ4syqVlxjv/s1600/FinalExam_Review_stochastic_modeling.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Stochastic modeling summary slide from SOS 212 (Systems, Dynamics, and Sustainability), an introductory modeling course taught by Theodore (Ted) Pavlic at Arizona State University" border="0" data-original-height="405" data-original-width="720" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_tJqS54inzjDa9XWbrso1BEdtw_QQq31atX8iWG087a4w89n_jzmdleoK6fXqBB9wXfWuDE4CjLJg6B1JNcCQMUtAcSgtQiie7sNRdlLJQg_AuUsbEXEUxfMvlZJ4syqVlxjv/s400/FinalExam_Review_stochastic_modeling.jpg" title="Slide from SOS 212 (Systems, Dynamics, and Sustainability), an introductory modeling course taught by Theodore (Ted) Pavlic at Arizona State University" width="512" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Slide from SOS 212 (Systems, Dynamics, and Sustainability), an introductory modeling course I teach</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
"<b><span style="color: blue;">Randomness</span></b>" is a general term representing a special kind of uncertainty where the frequency of possible outcomes can be described using <b>probabilistic methods</b>. Where a photon is going to be at a particular instant of time is fundamentally random; it can only be described using a probability distribution. There are some kinds of uncertainty that cannot be described probabilistically. For example, I might know that an experiment can end in one of three different ways, but exactly how it will end depends upon which participant is performing the experiment. If I need to describe how the experiment can end but do not have any ability to specify a probabilistic weighting of the outcomes, I can describe the system as having a <b>non-deterministic</b> outcome. So something can be fundamentally <b>random</b> or <b>non-deterministic</b>. If it's random, you have some way to describe how one outcome might be more likely than another.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
"<b><span style="color: purple;">Stochastic</span></b>" is a term originating from Greek for "<b>guess</b>" or "<b>conjecture</b>." It describes a <b>modeling technique </b>to simplify a model by assuming (guessing/conjecturing) that the system being modeled is random, even if it is not. In other words, rather than having to account for a wide range of degrees of freedom that might be necessary to specify how a system is going to evolve, you substitute all of that detailed deterministic modeling with a crude approximation of the outcome being "random". The modeling burden then shifts from getting everything right down to high levels of precision to shaping the probability distributions to best match the outcomes that are most likely, regardless of what the underlying mechanism is. So a "stochastic model" is one that describes a system using randomness regardless of whether there is any reason to believe that the randomness is fundamental. It is a modeling trick to add analytically tractability to models that would otherwise be prohibitively complex to be useful.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
So you shouldn't refer to phenomena themselves as being "stochastic." It is OK to say that the phenomena is random (if you really believe that). Or it is OK to say you use a stochastic model to describe the system (which implies that you will use randomness in order to omit a large number of degrees of freedom, thus making the model "simpler"). But you shouldn't use "stochastic" as a synonym for "random."</div>
Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-19508870763779110722019-04-17T17:01:00.000-07:002019-04-19T06:46:52.872-07:00How to write a scientific paper, in four simple stepsAccomplished scientific writers will all have their own tips on how to go about writing a scientific paper. However, when you are first getting started, sometimes it is easier to have a set of steps available. Certainly there are many options available, but I personally have been finding the following set of steps useful when advising students lately.<br />
<ul>
<li><b><i>Step 1: Write the Introduction (starting with <u>second</u> paragraph)</i></b><br />The introduction lays out why you bothered to do the study you did. It provides a background from the existing literature, and it points out holes in that literature or opportunities to test answers to questions that have little coverage.<br /><br />However, the first paragraph of your introduction (in fact, the first few sentences of your paper) are often the hardest ones to write. A colleague points out to her students that a great way to get around this potential writer's block is to simply <b>skip the first paragraph</b>. If you start with the second paragraph, you can immediately start laying out the argument for why your study needs to be done. Once you finish the rest of the introduction, it may be easy to see what the first paragraph needs to be. In other words, once you have 75% of the argument completed, the shape of the puzzle piece that remains will often be clear.<br /></li>
<li><b><i>Step 2: Write the Discussion</i></b><br />If someone is already convinced that your paper has something interesting to say, that person will likely jump straight to the discussion and start reading there. This is where you describe how your data support some story that you want to tell about an inference you have made about the natural world. <b>As you write your discussion, it will become clear exactly which data you need to tell your story.</b> And so that brings us to the next step.<br /></li>
<li><b><i>Step 3: Write the Results</i></b><br />Now that you have crafted a convincing discussion, you know what results are needed to support your argument. Writing the discussion first tells you what to include and what you can exclude. A lot of students make the mistake of starting with all of the possible plots that can be generated and then trying to string together a discussion around them, even if some of those plots really aren't needed. Don't do it that way. <b>Instead, let your discussion guide which results to include.<br /></b></li>
<li><b><i>Step 4: Write the Methods</i></b><br />Putting this step here is controversial. <b>In many cases where your study has a clear experimental design that tests for something very specific, then it is possible to write your methods first.</b> However, if you are instead working with <b>a very large dataset</b> that might someday result in multiple papers, then your methods might need to wait for you to determine exactly which results you need to make your argument. So <b>once you've written your results, you can then generate methods that explain how all of those results came about.</b></li>
</ul>
Those four steps can often soothe writer's block on a scientific paper. You may determine a different flow as you mature in your writing process, but this is just one suggestion of where you might think about starting.<br />
<div>
<br />
<div>
<b><i>Special Note: Title and Abstract</i></b><br />
<br />
Of course, two things that are left out of the steps above are the <b>title </b>and <b>abstract</b>. Young writer's often leave these until the end, and they often view them as complementary to the rest of the article. However, with maturity, it should be possible to write them first and view them almost as alternatives (or marketing pieces) for the whole article. Writing them first can also provide structure (similar to an outline) for the rest of the article. So work toward being able to write these two things first, but it's OK if you start by writing them last.<br />
<br />
Keep in <b>mind that most readers will only read the title and abstract</b> (and <b>some will only read the title</b>). Consequently, the title should not be clickbait; <b><span style="color: red;">the title should be an executive summary of the article, giving the punchline as opposed to begging the reader to read further.</span></b> Interested readers will move on to the abstract. Consequently, <b><span style="color: blue;">your abstract should really have everything an educated reader needs to reconstruct your article;</span> </b>it should have a little bit of all of the sections. Your abstract should concisely say why you did the things you did, how you did them, what the main results were, and why those results are interesting.<br />
<br /></div>
<b><i>Take-away Message: It's About the Reader</i></b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
People are busy, and they allocate their reading resources accordingly. If you tease them with half statements, they will only get frustrated and move on to the next thing that competes for their time. Instead, give them something interesting and complete in the title. If they want more details, they can read the abstract, which should itself be complete. If they want more details, they'll read the main body (possibly starting with the discussion section). For the reader, it's about sequentially choosing what to read next. When you write, you should always have this in mind as you design the delivery vehicle for the content you hope will be disseminated broadly.</div>
</div>
Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-17541054768957406562019-04-10T17:33:00.006-07:002019-04-10T17:39:15.481-07:00Stochasticity, Randomness, and Chaos (and the differences between them)In popular culture, words like "stochastic", "random", and "chaotic" are often used interchangeably. However, these three terms have totally different meanings. Furthermore, "randomness" and "chaos" are near opposites. Whereas "randomness" is used to simplify the process of model building, "chaos" is a phenomena that comes out of non-random models. Chaotic patterns appear random but are products of entirely deterministic processes. Chaos is an extreme sensitivity to initial conditions that relates to trajectories from deterministic systems gaining more and more individuality over time, as opposed to less. If it is chaotic, it is not random.<br />
<br />
I explain the similarities and differences between stochasticity, randomness, and chaos in this two-part lecture recorded as a complement to material in my SOS 212 (Systems, Dynamics, and Sustainability) course at Arizona State University.<br />
<br />
<b>
Lecture G1: Randomness and Chaos <i>(SOS 212, Systems Dynamics and Sustainability, ASU)</i></b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b>Part 1: Randomness</b></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/dHaBt42qDt8/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dHaBt42qDt8?feature=player_embedded" width="550"></iframe></div>
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b>Part 2: Chaos</b></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/NJca3QAiIwo/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NJca3QAiIwo?feature=player_embedded" width="550"></iframe></div>
<br />
<br />
For related videos that may be of interest, see my <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLXBbGVSkQJqGe6MLnQFtlSuRT1eGuQ_wK" target="_blank">SOS 212 YouTube playlist</a>.Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-50461375142456479892019-04-10T07:25:00.000-07:002019-04-10T07:31:21.979-07:00Bifurcation Diagrams, Hysteresis, and Tipping Points: Explanations Without Math<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
I teach a system dynamics modeling course (SOS 212: Systems, Dynamics, and Sustainability) at Arizona State University. It is a required course for our Sustainability BS students, which they ideally take in their second year after taking SOS 211, which is essentially Calculus I. The two courses together give them quantitative modeling fundamentals that they hopefully can make use of in other courses downstream and their careers in the future.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
I end up having to cover a lot of content in SOS 212 that I myself learned through the lens of mathematics, but these students are learning it much earlier than I did and without many of the mathematical fundamentals. So I have to come up with explanations that do not rely on the mathematics. Here is an example from a recent lecture on <b>bifurcation diagrams, hysteresis, and tipping points</b>. It builds upon a fisheries example (from <a href="https://amzn.to/2WTz5I6" target="_blank">Morecroft's 2015 textbook</a>) that uses a "Net regeneration" lookup table in lieu of a formal mathematical expression.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/smOmHxv69SE/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/smOmHxv69SE?feature=player_embedded" width="525"></iframe></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
You can find additional videos related to this course at my S<a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLXBbGVSkQJqGe6MLnQFtlSuRT1eGuQ_wK" target="_blank">OS 212: System, Dynamics, and Sustainability playlist</a>.</div>
<br />Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-90893222649465410092019-03-01T14:13:00.001-07:002019-03-01T14:15:29.415-07:00Early Career Academics: Tips for Preparing for your Interview VisitThis post goes out to early career academics about to interview for positions. Preparing for your interview is very different than preparing for just another seminar visit. Moreover, the observable difference between a well-prepared candidate and one who sees the interview as just another invited seminar visit is HUGE. Do yourself a favor and ask faculty you know how to prepare. Most faculty, even junior faculty, have served on at least one search committee and will have a lot of good perspectives from sitting on the other side of the interview process.<br />
<br />
This post gives a few tips that I've picked up after sitting on search committees. Your mileage may vary, and you should definitely ask around. But this is what I notice...<br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
Given that your audience will be with everyone you meet that day as well as everyone who sees your presentation (which may be video taped and viewed in a tiny screen, which is something you might want to consider when crafting it), you should survey several people to see what sticks out for them about good and bad candidates. Ultimately, people make up their minds very quickly based on relatively small things. The search committee might have combed through your CV, and certainly some who submit feedback to the search committee about your visit will have as well, but many will make their decision during your talk (or multiple talks, in the case of some departments) and/or in the few minutes they have had to talk to you during a half-hour meeting or over a meal. So get a good idea of what "many people" might like.<br />
<br />
So below I've put some good general tips from my perspective. Again, your mileage may vary.<br />
<h2>
FIRST, THE NON-TALK-RELATED TIPS (talk tips in next section)</h2>
<span style="font-weight: normal;">It's not all about the job talk. I've given job talk tips below, and the job talk is extremely important -- one of the most important talks you'll give. However, there is a lot of the day(s) that won't be the job talk, and you need to be prepared for all of the interactions you'll have. So I put the non-job talk tips first.</span><br />
<ul>
<li>DO YOUR (VIRTUAL) RECONNAISSANCE IN ADVANCE! When you find out you are going to be interviewing, you may not know who exactly you will meet that day. Even when you're given the schedule, there may be last-minute additions. So if you can, do your best to memorize who all of the faculty are and know roughly what they do (up to a 2-sentence description). You may not know who the search committee is, but you should use whatever clues have been made available in the communication thus far to be able to spot them in a crowd so that you know they're coming. You never want to be in the position where you have to ask someone what they do. You want to make it seem like you are genuinely interested in their research and can ask intelligent questions about it. You also want to try to anticipate what they find valuable and adjust your answers to questions to be complementary to these perspectives.</li>
<li>Try to understand how the school is structured and where your position would fit in that structure. Try to understand what resources are available. Be able to tell someone what specific things attract you to that school or that program. Make it look like you've been waiting for this particular position to open and jumped on the opportunity as opposed to just interviewing at any random school.</li>
<li>Be very courteous and approachable and never dismissive. Be comfortable. Do your best to be relaxed and conversational while also internally keeping up a little bit of a guard. You don't want to be too quiet, but you want to be more professional than you usually are on an average visit. You aren't required to answer certain classes of personal questions (whether you have a spouse, kids, plans for these things, etc.), and so you can divert if they happen to come up casually, or you can try to use them if you think they would be an advantage. But don't give up too much information about things that could make it difficult for you to accept a position. Those tricky details can come out during negotiation.</li>
<li>Keep in mind that you want faculty to want to work with you. You want them to be excited about collaborating with you.</li>
<li>Keep in mind that you will also be evaluated based on whether there is too much overlap with existing faculty. Do your best to emphasize the new things you can bring (without accidentally pointing out weaknesses in other faculty or the program as a whole).</li>
<li>You may be given 30 minutes alone with graduate students. Prepare for this time by having a set of questions that you can ask them (in case they don't have much to ask you). You have already studied up on all of their advisers, and so you should be prepared for the different research directions they have and can maybe anticipate some of their answers. But let them speak. You want them to see you as another faculty member that they would want around as a resource. Their advisers may ask them how they felt about the interaction.</li>
</ul>
<h2>
JOB TALK TIPS:</h2>
<span style="font-weight: normal;">And here are the general comments about job talks. See the previous section about non-job-talk related tips (in short: DO YOUR RECONNAISSANCE and BE COURTEOUS)...</span><br />
<ul>
<li>Practice your job talk before hand so that your timing is flawless and you are clearly confident with the material. And get your timing and talk density right so that you END WITH TIME FOR QUESTIONS. Ten minutes is sufficient. But don't leave more than 15 minutes. But if you leave less than ten minutes, people will not be impressed (and may even be annoyed).</li>
<li>Make sure your job talk tells a consistent narrative that gives everyone in the audience an idea of what your research vision is and how your career up to this point has successfully implemented that vision. This may not be true a priori, but you need to find a way to tell your story to make it seem true. People don't want to see a random collection of research. They want to use the talk to get to know you, what you've done, what you will likely do in the next 3–5 years, and be impressed with both the current body of work and the potential. With that in mind, you don't have to present everything if some things don't contribute to the broad overall narrative. If you still have some work you're proud of that you don't think fits a narrative, you can include it briefly as a kind of "Other things that I am interested in" near the end to show you have breadth. But don't hop back and forth between disconnected projects. People will forget what you're all about and get frustrated by the lack of consistency.</li>
<li>If your work has been published or presented at major conferences, call out these venues in your presentation as you go through them. You want people to be convinced that other people care about your work. Don't hit them over the head with giant bibs, but maybe include a small parenthetical ref at the bottom of slides here and there and then say things like, "In work I presented at .... last year," or, "In work that came out in ... a few months ago..."</li>
<li>If you have more work than just your PhD work, be sure to show it somewhere. People like to get a sample of what you'll do as an independent researcher. Sometimes just the PhD work doesn't quite capture that.</li>
<li>Include at least a few slides on future directions. You don't want people wondering what you'll do next. Pointing out where you have already received funding is a good thing, and it's definitely good to identify where you'll go next for funding (agencies or even particular programs). Some sort of flowchart showing how your research vision can be divided into specific threads that meet the objectives of these different agencies is great as it is more convincing that your vision can be operationalized for the next 3–5 years.</li>
<li>Figure out if you are in a discipline (or even a school) that cares so much about education that a significant portion of your job talk should be associated with your classroom innovations and perspectives.</li>
<li>When you get to the end of your talk and are taking questions, try to maximize for the quantity of questions. Don't dwell on one particular answer, and don't give one question too much time. Do your best to respectfully acknowledge the value of the question you were given, but try to table long discussions for "off line" discussion. This is the only time some faculty will have to interact with you, and you don't want to frustrate some who have questions by being too thorough with someone else's question. It also looks much better if you answer 3 questions than spending a long time on 1. So find a way to pivot quickly to another question if your first question is starting to take too long and prevent you from getting to others.</li>
<li>The Dean/Head of School/Director may be in the audience. They may have a question. Take that question first as they may have to leave earlier than everyone else, and they also have an outsized role in hiring decisions.</li>
</ul>
Make sure you go to a bunch of job talks before your own job talk to see the diversity and try to guess which ones are good and bad job talks. Usually (but not always) more senior people give better job talks because they already have a good idea of what is good and bad because they've done it more and been a part of the decision-making process themselves. Contrast these more senior researchers with junior researchers who are definitely giving their first job talk. You'll notice consistent differences in the structure of the talk. I would say a good structure is something like...<br />
<ul>
<li>Here's my vision</li>
<li>Here's a few projects that fit well together that show that vision</li>
<li>Here is where that vision takes me in the future and who will pay for it</li>
<li>Oh, by the way, here are other things I do too, but I don't have time to go into in detail</li>
<li>Here are my perspectives on education (depending on the school/discipline, you may not have this section at all or it may be half of your talk)</li>
<li>Here are 10–15 minutes I've made available for questions</li>
</ul>
Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-24869120390304038812017-10-10T14:23:00.003-07:002017-10-10T14:33:41.857-07:00Review: Don't buy the JBL Link 10 or the JBL Link 20! Junk speakers have unavoidable ugly popping noises.<div align="center">
<table border="1" cellpadding="10"><tbody>
<tr><td align="center"><b><u>TL;DR</u></b><br />
<b><u><br /></u></b>
The JBL LINK 10 and LINK 20 should have been amazing products. Unfortunately, <b>all three units purchased from two different Best Buy stores have the same major audio problem.</b> The audio cracks and pops even at medium volume of the most delicate content. I cannot get through Clair de Lune (at medium volume) or even streaming of voice content from NPR without very noticeable popping at random instants – the kind of popping you might expect if you had a loose connection within a speaker amplifier that generates discontinuous movements of a speaker every time it vibrates loose for a moment. We have returned all three speakers. <b><span style="color: red;">I do not recommend you waste your time or money with these things.</span></b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<br />
I was originally very excited by the <a href="http://news.harman.com/releases/introducing-jblR-link-series-immersive-jbl-sound-now-available-with-the-google-assistant" target="_blank">announcement of the JBL LINK Series</a>, with the <a href="https://www.bestbuy.com/site/jbl-link-10-smart-portable-bluetooth-speaker-with-google-voice-assistant-black/6086101.p?skuId=6086101" target="_blank">JBL LINK 10</a> (below, left) and the <a href="https://www.bestbuy.com/site/jbl-link-20-smart-portable-bluetooth-speaker-with-google-voice-assistant-black/6086202.p?skuId=6086202" target="_blank">JBL LINK 20</a> (below, right) models being particularly interesting to me.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.bestbuy.com/site/jbl-link-10-smart-portable-bluetooth-speaker-with-google-voice-assistant-black/6086101.p?skuId=6086101" target="_blank"><img alt="JBL LINK 10: New Google-Assistant-enabled speaker from JBL (available at Best Buy)" border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="314" height="320" src="https://pisces.bbystatic.com/image2/BestBuy_US/images/products/6086/6086101_sd.jpg;maxHeight=640;maxWidth=550" title="JBL LINK 10 (Best Buy link)" width="157" /></a> <a href="https://www.bestbuy.com/site/jbl-link-20-smart-portable-bluetooth-speaker-with-google-voice-assistant-black/6086202.p?skuId=6086202" target="_blank"><img alt="JBL LINK 20: New Google-Assistant-enabled speaker from JBL (available at Best Buy)" border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="278" height="320" src="https://pisces.bbystatic.com/image2/BestBuy_US/images/products/6086/6086202_sd.jpg;maxHeight=640;maxWidth=550" title="JBL LINK 20 (Best Buy link)" width="139" /></a></div>
<br />
In short, both speakers are like portable versions of the traditional <a href="https://store.google.com/product/google_home" target="_blank">Google Home</a> with the promise of potentially better audio quality because they are made by speaker companies. There have been several 3rd-party Bluetooth speakers with Amazon Alexa integration, but they are more similar to the <a href="http://amzn.to/2yeXz4S" target="_blank">Echo Tap</a> than the full <a href="http://amzn.to/2yWSHix" target="_blank">Echo</a> because they required pressing a button to call up Alexa. Instead, members of the JBL LINK series are <b>fully voice activated</b> just like Google Home, and the LINK 10 promises a 5-hour battery life when unplugged and the LINK 20 promises a 10-hour battery life when unplugged. Furthermore, both the LINK 10 and LINK 20 have <b>an IPX7 waterproof design</b> which means you can not only take them outside but you can put them in the shower. My wife and I have been looking for an elegant way to extend our voice assistants and multi-room audio systems outside, and this new line of speakers seemed perfect for that. Plus, when we brought them inside, they could serve as full-featured voice-activated Google Home replacements (albeit without the beta features that we get early on our real Google Homes).<br />
<br />
On the day the JBL LINK 20 was released, we purchased a $199 <a href="https://www.bestbuy.com/site/jbl-link-20-smart-portable-bluetooth-speaker-with-google-voice-assistant-black/6086202.p?skuId=6086202" target="_blank">JBL LINK 20</a> from a local Best Buy. Setting it up was identical to setting up a Google Home. The unit came with a JBL's characteristic orange 10W USB charger and micro-USB cable; however, the unit had plenty of charge and could be used off the charger out of the box. Once I set it up, I asked Google Assistant to stream from our local NPR station. I was surprised to hear subtle but very noticeable popping at random times during the stream. I thought this could be a problem with the stream (although I did not notice these popping noises when I streamed on true Google Home or Amazon Echo devices in our home), and so I played a nice song called <a href="https://play.google.com/music/m/Tgvmjce6sqzovd4dgku7czhy47q?t=Tennessee_Whiskey_-_Chris_Stapleton" target="_blank">"Tennessee Whiskey" by Chris Stapleton</a>, and I noticed the same problem. Finally, I played the gentle, all-piano <a href="https://play.google.com/music/m/Tcrbq3juv4qmvqa7tci2ipsm72a?t=Clair_De_Lune_-_Debussy" target="_blank">"Clair de Lune" by Claude Debussy</a> at medium volume (2 or 3 dots on the front of the unit) and heard the same random popping. The popping is unrelated to whether the speaker is plugged into the charger or not; it is consistent in all operating conditions.<br />
<br />
Being an optimist, I assumed I must have received a dud. Trying to minimize the chances of getting another from a batch of duds, I returned the unit back to a <b><i>different</i> </b>Best Buy and purchased <i style="font-weight: bold;">BOTH</i> a $149 <a href="https://www.bestbuy.com/site/jbl-link-10-smart-portable-bluetooth-speaker-with-google-voice-assistant-black/6086101.p?skuId=6086101" target="_blank">JBL LINK 10</a> and a brand new $199 <a href="https://www.bestbuy.com/site/jbl-link-20-smart-portable-bluetooth-speaker-with-google-voice-assistant-black/6086202.p?skuId=6086202" target="_blank">JBL LINK 20</a> to try them out. I was surprised to find out that the $50 difference between the two not only paid for the larger speaker and battery but also paid for the USB charger! Although the LINK 20 comes with a 10W charger, the LINK 10 only comes with the cable. Regardless of that, they <i style="font-weight: bold;">BOTH</i> had the exact same problem as the first LINK 20 we purchased – they couldn't pass the <a href="https://play.google.com/music/m/Tcrbq3juv4qmvqa7tci2ipsm72a?t=Clair_De_Lune_-_Debussy" target="_blank">"Clair de Lune"</a> test at medium volume! So I have to conclude that <b>there is something fundamentally wrong with the JBL LINK series</b> (at least in the LINK 10 and LINK 20 varieties).<br />
<br />
I'm extremely disappointed by this result. It makes me think that the sale of <a href="https://www.harman.com/" target="_blank">Harman</a> (and <a href="http://www.jbl.com/" target="_blank">JBL</a>) to <a href="https://www.samsung.com/us/" target="_blank">Samsung</a> earlier this year is starting to take its toll on product quality. I guess I should be happy the device didn't explode in my hands. Still, I'm sad it doesn't provide the awesome sound quality of the much older JBL products I own. Even the $80 <a href="http://amzn.to/2xxmCfX" target="_blank">JBL FLIP 4's</a> that I have clearly out-perform these much more expensive LINK 10 and LINK 20's. I was thinking about pairing the new <a href="https://store.google.com/product/google_home_mini" target="_blank">Google Home Mini</a> with a <a href="http://amzn.to/2xxmCfX" target="_blank">JBL FLIP 4</a>, but I just learned that the Google Home Mini has no 3.5mm audio jack and only has Bluetooth support as a target speaker and not as a source (so you are stuck with the Mini's apparently crappy speaker). If only the <a href="https://store.google.com/product/chromecast_audio" target="_blank">Chromecast Audio</a> could directly connect to a Bluetooth speaker (without some ugly dongle), then at least I'd have a path toward an elegant solution to outdoor casting. Meanwhile, back to the drawing board!Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com47tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-85640039875974481872017-04-13T16:40:00.000-07:002017-04-13T16:40:11.669-07:00Half the reason for POMDP's in the literature: You can pronounce the name!<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">Today, I noticed a new paper in </span><i style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">Mathematics of Operations Research, </i><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">which suggests a way to combine risk-sensitivity with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partially_observable_Markov_decision_process" target="_blank">POMDP</a>'s without having to use only <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_utility" target="_blank">exponential utility</a> functions</span><i style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">. </i><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">I'm bothering to write this post because the title is infuriating to me. In my opinion, the title of the paper will probably largely contribute to why it will be forgotten – only to be referenced by other papers that find it while doing their <i><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc" target="_blank">post hoc</a></i> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Due_diligence" target="_blank">due diligence</a>. </span><br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<b>"Partially Observable Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes"</b></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
by Bäauerle and Rieder</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<i>Mathematics of Operations Research</i> (2017), Articles in advance<br /><div>
<a href="http://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/moor.2016.0844">http://pubsonline.informs.org/<wbr></wbr>doi/abs/10.1287/moor.2016.0844</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The great success of POMDP as a framework used in the literature is in part because people like the name – "POM-D-P". If you're taking in a young graduate student, you can send them to the literature with a few quick words – "Go check out POMDP's". </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But what am I going to do with PORSMDP? "Poor-Sim-Dop"? "Po-Rism-Dip"? Even if one of those managed to roll of off the tongue, the relationship to POMDP wouldn't be obvious.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Why didn't anyone in the chain of custody of this manuscript suggest putting "Risk-Sensitive" up front, as in RSPOMDP (R-S-POM-D-P)? Or maybe at the end, as in POMDPRS ("POM-DiPpeRS")? The latter suggestion not only is memorable, but <i>it sounds delicious</i>.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Just some food for thought.</div>
</div>
Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9453241.post-9939929640732558862016-03-22T09:51:00.000-07:002016-03-22T09:52:49.310-07:00Phone scam: "Enforcement action" from "US Treasury" (302-279-3069)At 8:00 AM this morning, I received a phone call from <b>302-279-3069</b> that I let go to voicemail. On the voicemail, there was a threatening but obviously scripted monologue along the lines of...<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I'm calling regarding an enforcement action executed by the US Treasury requiring your serious attention. Ignoring this will be an intentional attempt to avoid initial appearance before a magistrate judge or Grand Jury for a federal criminal offense. My number is <b>302-279-3069</b>. I repeat <b>302-279-3069</b>. I advise you to cooperate with us and <b>help us to help you</b>. Thank you.</blockquote>
I especially like the "help us to help you" part. This is basically the <a href="http://wtop.com/news/2014/09/phone-scammers-pretend-to-be-the-treasury-department/" target="_blank">same phone scam reported by many others</a> in tax seasons.<br />
<br />
I encourage anyone with free time to give this number a call (<a href="http://www.wikihow.com/Block-Caller-ID" target="_blank">dial *67 before you call them to mask your caller ID</a>). If they're on the phone with you, then they won't be on the phone with some poor person that they've tricked.Ted Pavlichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15297790411942050417noreply@blogger.com0